Florence day 4

9-8

Afternoon. Here's how she looks - still struggling, not moving much.

No real changes or updates. Euro was north of GFS for a while, still hits NC.  The intriguing feature today is the stall as a ridge builds to its west and the high to the east that was steering it peters out.

GFS solution stalled and looped off NC, never hitting land, but intensifying as it drifted SW.  This is odd cause it intensified, or maintains intensity despite being over "old" water.

We'll have to see if thats what happens though.  My guess is the high to the east is stronger.
At 250mb you can see the high to the east and scoops up Florence, or rather pushes her up with southwesterlies.  Then as the high passes under Florence comes back south on the northwesterlies.  But only for a day then she is decoupled until the westerlies you see in the upper left arrive and push her out.  (see loop below for demonstration on GFS)

Afternoon euro did come in stronger and further north, but still only 89mph.

Ukie shifted from the SC/GA border to the SC/NC border - hilton head to myrtle beach basically

12z Myrtle Beach

0z Hilton Head

JMA looks like this.

So under a week out.  The question is does it hit NC or not.  I'm still in the camp that says it does.  GFS going to 910 is stupid.  But the Euro and FV3 are more realistic.  Keep in mind the NAVGEM, Euro, GFS, FV3 and JMA all have it stalling and looping at some point.  What's going to happen is wherever it loops/stalls is going to have crazy rainfalls.  Here are some of those maps. Yes thats 25" on the Euro and 20" on the F3V.

And much of the east has had above normal rain in the last 60 days

in inches

percentage of normal

So even with winds under 100mph, this could be a storm to remember.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

morning

While Florence still recovers from her beating, the NWS has now forecast crossing 30N at 75W.

They are still on a kick about restrengthening.  There are differences in the operationals here
CMC doesn't strengthen much, stays south, hits GA

Euro strengthens to a cat two briefly but mostly cat one, with the EPS weaker as with the CMC and a touch south of the operational.  Both land in SC

NAVGEM is the exception and what is bothering me the most today.  It strengthens, seems to head toward NC  but then heads south.

GFS strenghtens to a major (as to the hwrf and hmon) and stays as a NC hit at 0z

At this time I favor a NC hit, not to far from the GFS idea.  This considers the last two day's of info, that the restrengthening will happen and that some of that restrengthening works to steer north.

Florence is forecast to rebuild over the next day.

INIT  08/1500Z 24.5N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 24.6N  56.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

After which rapid intensification takes place.  

 36H  10/0000Z 24.8N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 25.1N  59.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 26.3N  64.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 31.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH




Lets see where we are in 24hr - if we're at 75-85mph, then NC is in play. 

If its still under 75mph (TS) then SC is in play.  If its over 85mph, then we need

reexamine and adjust to a NC to Cape Cod hit again.  



And why am I not completely sold on a hit?  While I think the chances are 80% that 

there is landfall, there are some models still with misses, particularly the GEPS and GEFS







In addition, using the EPS spaghetti, you notice the stronger ones (red) are further north 

with some recurving.  But also notice the recurve is sharp, so if it doesn't hit NC does it 

even hit the coast at all?