Mesoscale storm and interesting feature near TX

Last night a mesoscale convective system rolled through the eastern part of the country affecting IN through DC and NJ. In NJ, three people died, two children camping when a tree fell on them, and a fisherman in a boat near Absecon. 190,000 left without power in S NJ with 2million between NJ and WV. Storm lasted maybe 2 hours or slightly more with the hardest part hitting SNJ just after midnight. Winds up to 89mph were recorded. Radar estimates 4-5 inches of rain.

Separately, an interesting feature off tx this morning. Lets see if NHC is on it?

Amazing shot of heat

Yesterday (6/19) at this time (9:30) it was 63 degrees, and it only reached a high of 74.
Today, the wall thermometer is showing 82 at the same time of day (shed is showing 78)
You know it will be hot when its 80 at 9:30!

Piling into the Gulf, W Carrib

6/21 Hurricane Chris -as noted there was a storm formed off the east coast, which looked like a baroclinic storm which went tropical. Its appearance is clearly tropical, but its odd since it formed north of 40N and in water temps barely over 70. Most of its life the temps are 20 to 24c (68-75F) per the NHC SST. Must have been more too it than just tropical

Shear is relaxing a bit, but only in the Yucatan Channel, which is where the next storm is trying to form. So a little late from the call of the 19th, but same idea.

6/15
Euro still has minor hints at somthing forming around Mexico, but more interestingly takes the baroclinic storm and converts to one with more tropical features of the East coast.

0z and 6z gfs less bullish on the EC storm, but has a Trop storm forming in Bay of campeche and moving to the Rio Grande.


6/12
12z gfs has lp escaping from central carrib out east, with minor development. Euro keeps trying to form but either sends west into Mex or shreds it coming north. 0z gfs has a bunch forming, first into B of Campeche, really short on development on the 16th. Competing is one in the central carrib, which like 12 z is lifted ne. Another off the Yucatan on the 21, but looks like it gets sheared ne into US.

afternoon: Accuweather on top of this as well now. Although the storm this weekend off the east coast looks more baroclinic than tropical.

6/9
Watch the 15-19th as the pattern in the carrib shifts to piling up moisture into the Gulf. A front coming along could spin up a storm, or one can form just with the amount of energy pouring in.

Noise in the Carribean

5-25 -Beryl named 11pm. Very odd track, particularly on Euro, where it heads southwest into and across FL, into Gulf, then turns around back NE right along the coast up to OBX before it heads out.

5-23 GFS and NAM have that Caribbean impulse forming a tropical low off the SE coast and pulling back into Fl. Euro still shows impulse but no formation. GFS still has another one going up the coast and out to sea around the June 1/2 time frame. Two storms in May off the US is unheard of. NHC not on this one yet, but Henry posted an alert. http://ow.ly/b68MJ . JB is on it as well, actually got on it yesterday too.http://t.co/vJytff7o. Evening: NHc puts out circle of concern, finally. But put chances at near zero.

5-22 GFS and Euro making some noise out of the garbage forming in the W. Caribbean for later this week. GFS brings an impulse out into the W Atlantic over the weekend, but then heads it west into FL. Euro forms a 1008 low, but it dissipates. GFS brings another impulse up a front, which needs to be watched as well, but it looks more barometrically formed than tropically formed.

Early trop storm?

5/19 - Alberto forms right off the coast today

5/16

Euro still has disorganized low pressures over the gulfsteam from 5/18-5/22, with some consolidation over nyc on the 22nd. GFS 0z has nothing. 6z run has a disorganized 1012 low spinning off a front to the nw of Bermuda. Nogaps is similar to euro with disorganized, but low pressures, consolidating on the 22nd but off the delmarva. Ukmet has a 1010 low spinning over the gulfstream at 35N from the 19th to 21st. JMA forms a 1010 off the OBX on the 22nd and shows that the impulses are coming up from the gulf and tropics that are forming this.


5/14

GFS still has on the 24th. Euro doesn't, but leaves a lot of energy for the fronts to spin up a storm. Just to clarify yesterdays statement - storm would be off the coast.


5/13

Keeping eye on SE coast for the 22-26th. Looked more impressive this mornings Euro, but still a weak trop storm on the 12z.

NAM pic from 6z run on 4/25


Would be very fitting if this were to occur. An end of April snow storm. Would be about the same as an end of October storm. Yeah its a long shot, but surprising to see it even in the cards.

Wrap up and April fools

3.29

Snow stays in northern CT, with Catskills and Berkshires getting 2-4. Still keeping an eye on it.

3.28

All 0z/6z models have snow in the air. Timing from Fri into Sat (3/31) or Sat into Sun (4/1). NAM puts down 4 inches, CMC is also aggressive. Euro puts snow down too, but not more than an inch. GFS puts it in the air, but no accum in the immediate area.

Longer term - GFS is interesting as it keeps the 0@850 line in our area and brings a few weak storms across while we are under 0@850.

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Euro op and ens go to a surprise snow April 1-2. GFS not on it now. GFS does make it cold after April 6 though. Interesting.

As I write this, March is over 10 degrees above normal for DXR. We had no measurable snow this month. And its been dry, with only .49 of precip (15% of normal).

Feb came in at 4 above normal with 1.6" of precip (half normal) and 6" of snow.
Jan was 4.8 above normal with 2.6" precip (70% of normal) and 6" of snow.
Dec was 4.8 above normal with 5.24" of precip (125% of normal) and no snow.

The average departure from normal for Met Winter (12/1 - 3/1) was 4 above with 12" of snow.
The average departure from normal for Std Winter was 6 above with 12" of snow.
Total snow so including Oct storm is 30"

Forecast from October was 35" of snow (not far off), but for lots of ice and rain. We had no ice storms. Temp was predicted at 1.6 above, which was high compared to the prof mets. The actual was 4 above. So only close for snow due to the freak storm. I'd give myself a C for calling for a warmer than normal, with less snow than normal winter, but missing the departures.

Modified forecast later in Dec brought up the lack of snow in Dec translating into lack of snow in JAN,FEB and MAR. This was a good call.