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Monday, February 23, 2009

March 1st (ish)

3/2 - 5pm its over. Flurries from the upper level low, no deformation snows. We were dry slotted most of the day while 10 miles east was in bands of snow and the H River had bands of snow. Here is picture from backyard. Black line on stick is 12". At the stick its 10 inches, but averaging out for drifts was 8.

9pm - Nam backs down! now showing 1-3 inches nw corner with 5-8 (.5-.75) inches west of ct river, 7-10 inches east (.75-1 inch). Far cry from the 2 inches from 6 hrs ago. I left the earlier run which has more precip to compare

Nam model 12z run 36 hr precip ending 6pm Monday

5pm - Euro, CMC bring storm just south of LI. UKMET goes just east of LI, NAM and GFS still putting out between .5 and 2 inches, with most of CT between .75 and 1.5, again, west to east.

3/1 - Here it comes - Winter storm warning with NWS calling for 10-14 inches. All models on board with snow for W CT. There is a tight gradient over CT with .5 inches and 2 inches from west to east. But East may mix. Any movement in this line is critical, but GFS and NAM are in solid agreement and have not budged over last three runs. If all snow, then 5-7 inches NW corner, 10-14 inches Fairfield county, 12-18 inches New Haven Middlesex and 18+ New London (again if all snow). Usually, noreasters do shift west, but its getting late for that. Also, higher snow ratios (I used 10:1) may play in the Western part of the state to bring up amounts.

2/28 - Winter Storm Watch! Some are calling for a foot or more now in CT from Sun -Mon nite. Models making more sense now with a more packaged storm. Most have snow starting Sun morn, but light with a wave going just east. Then the UKMET, CAN, EURO have the main low bombing out east of the bm bringing heavy snow until mon nite or even into Tuesday. Amazingly NAM 0z and 6z predicts no snow. 0z GFS had a ton of snow at least 6-12 even sunday but with heaviest early monday morn. 6z had much less, with 2-3 inches with more in ne corner of ct, ri and se mass.

2/27 5pm - its still looking a bit strange, but if this bundles together instead of spreading out, watch out. Still afraid of western movement and possible rain for CT. Most models still have two systems blobbed together with some having us miss the first round and hit second, and others missing the second but getting the first. It should snow sometime between Sat nite and Tuesday but is it flurries or feet?

12z GFS run has 2-3 inches of snow as low moves from GA/SC sat nite, to DE Bay Sun morn and another low forming over E. SC on Sunday. Second system out to sea
18z Nam has 1006 low in GA Sat nite, 1004 over GA and 1008 off Ches. Bay Sun morn with snow in CT and a 1004 off NC Sun nite with rest of precip off the coast
0z Euro had low moving from over NC/SC border to east of NC/SC sun morn to off NC sun nite and the remaining precip hanging around, unorganized the rest of the week
12z Euro has Sun morn rain/snow in nj with 1008 low over W GA/SC moving off Cape Hat 12z mon with snow in ct then up to gulf of maine tuesday with snow in area, unorganized thru thurs.
Both runs of ukmet have the lows just missing us with no precip at all from first system and 12z run has some snow on Tues.
0z Canadian has low over atlanta, to over sc (with sn in ct) to over myrtle beach, out into ocean and north into Southeast Mass. Lots of snow with this one
12z Candian a little further east with second system, still lots of snow on and off thru tues.

2/26 8pm - JMA ignoring front runner, sunny day in ct on sunday but brings snow in on Tues with a system offshore.
18z gfs ensembles bring 1008 low off NC, 100mi off Del bay to over benchmark No secondary development, but does leave some precip behind and has 5000ft temps and surface temps below freezing for even the big cities. NEver develops cutoff low.

2/26 5pm
0z Euro 1010 over GA Sun-Tue then off NC wed. East of BM on Thurs
12z Euro 1008 over GA/SC coast Sun, just off on Mon-Tues, Hatteras Wed and East of BM on Thurs - still puts out snow for the area how?
0z CMC 1006 over GA sun, off VA mon, second forms off GA tues, both pivot around Wed into Maine - snow along coast
12z CMC - 1008 over GA Sat, SC sun, off VA mon, over BM at 1004 Mon nite, mostly snow, not a lot and more at the coast
0z UKMEt - 1012 over SC on sun, just off va mon-wed
12z UKMEt - 1012 over West NC Sun, slowly off NC tues, then just east of Benchmark on Wednesday
6z DGEX - some snow on sun. Second forms off NC mon-wed, then brushes ccod
0z GFS - 1008 over SC Sat, 1004 off NJ sun morn, 2nd off of NC Sun nite, Hits Bmark on Monday and Tuesday - 4-8 inches
6z GFS - 1004 over NC Sun morn, off NJ Sun afternoon, reform off NC monday, over BM tues. too close Sunday=rain, but snow Tuesday 3-6, 12z 12z GFS - 1004 over SC sun6z, off del bay sun 12z, 2nd off nc sun nite and out to sea by Wed. odd thicknesses though 850 and surface temps support snow Sun
0z Nam - snow, 12z sun, 1004 off NC at 84hrs (sun)
6z nam - blows warm air all up coast, 6z sunday 1004 over VA/NC then elongates from CT to NC at 18z sun (84hrs)
12z Nam snow all day sunday with low off nj, 850 and surface under 32. with second forming off of GA.
18z Nam 1008 forms over SC sat nite, moves off nj sunday, air aloft over 32, surface under 32

2/25 - 1:30 0z GFS has 992 low jut of S Jersey, all rain east of H River;
6z GFS has 996 just over Benchmark, but not much precip, perhaps 3-6
12z GFS has 1004 just east of Benchmark, mostly snow, not a lot though
12z GFS Ens 1004 over Benchmark, rain/snow
0z UKMET - 1004 off of NC to over Cape Cod Mon night
12z UKMET - 1004 off of Hatteras up to S. New England
0z Euro - 1000 off of Delmarva, mostly snow west of CT river
12z Euro - 1004 over NJ, now mostly rain
0z CAN - 1000 over Chesapeke, north 996 right over CT, rain to snow
12z CAN - 1004 over Delmarva, redevelop off NC, go NE, then NW to a 992 Low over CT. Shows mostly snow, but not sure how
6z DGEX - 1002 off NJ moves NE, mostly snow. reforms off NC coast, moves NE, then NW (like CAN) but further off coast and away from S. NE. but keeps light snow in through Tuesday
JMA has same type of feature, forming off NC, moving north, reforming off NC, moving north.

Question for the day - does this mean two storms?

2/24 5pm. 12z Euro comes in close to coast, but stays cold in western ct with snow. 12z gfs also now has storm, stretched out though, with snow over western ct. Can has gone west into ny state, resulting in snow, rain, snow possibility. UK Met on board, not sure of extent of precip, but looks like it want to go just east of our area. If GFS and Euro are right, could be 6+ inches. GFS thicknesses look strange, but surface temps and temps at 5000 feet are all below freezing. Euro is way below freezing at 5000 feet. 18z GFS run showing the storm going right over CT resulting in rain. 18z DGEX has shifted a little north with storm going from VA northeast, brushing CT with some clouds.

2/24 10am - 0z Euro still with storm, weaker and later and further south. CMC (CAN) still has storm right up coast, a little weaker. DGEX goes south, out to sea. 0z GFS completely loses the storm. 6z GFS brings storm out, then over the benchmark, but with warm air and limited precip on west side, so its a glancing blow. Taking the 6z GFS and EURO, storm will just glance with some snow west of CT river. CMC is all out noreaster. I doubt the out to sea option, with a shift to the lakes more likely, as has been the pattern this year.

2/23 5pm - JMA on board with storm, but looks very suspcious good air aloft. Euro has farther south with it still looking funny - also warms it up aloft with center of 500mb low over SC and freezing line to Orlando all along the coast to ME. GFS has, you guessed it, storm on Sunday to the lakes!

2/23 This is way out there, but EURO and CAN have 996 low just south of LI with mostly snow over the tristate. DGEX and GFS are shoving it south with no snow, but cold. I would say that since there are two models with this storm, its likely going to the lakes!

Brief warmup Thurs/Fri with cold front and rain Fri.

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