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Sunday, December 6, 2009

12-13 long shot

12-12 - WRF has some snow to start, as does GFS, but less than an inch, lasting 1-2 hrs. No other model looks like it precips until 0 at 850 line passes north, or as it passes.

12-11 - Nam has all rain. GFS puts an inch down before changing to rain -looks to form northwest of benchmark. The accum snow map is off already as we have several inches on the ground not being picked up by the gfs. NAM and GFS almost look like the northern stream sw has too much and reforms over long island, essentially moving west to east. CAN has the most front loaded before changing to rain, and does not warm aloft all that much - keeps the low over the benchmark. UKMEt backloads it - all rain. Cant tell with the euro as its interval is too great - looks backloaded, but never has us in the precip field. Call is snow, freezing rain to rain, within 2 hours. Then light rain or drizzle with high of 36.

12-9 - Euro has low moving from upper plains, northern ohio and directly over us, resulting in another WAA situation. CMC 12z run looks completely bizarre with no low or precip at all, instead temps way above normal on Tuesday - its sunday low is in florida. UKMET has a low sort of forming on sunday off the coast, but has a real low west to east across the GLakes and to our north on Tuesday. DGEX has it clocking us, but the 540 line is north of us. GFS has it going to our south with a light snow event. Literally, all over the map for 4 days away.

12-8 GFS still has coastal, but actually looks like its warming aloft even though the low is east of us. Very odd. Euro has low going to lakes?? odd. Pushes through warm front. UK met has it off shore and looks good. DGEX out to sea.

12-6 - Euro and Gfs (hr168) have this little 1016 feature off the coast for 12-13. DGEX has it going straight east off GA. Official forecast from NWS and accuweather is sunny 35.

12-7 - Euro and GFS still on this thing. DGEX goes south.

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