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Friday, December 4, 2009

12/9 storm

12-8 - not looking good as secondary forms too close. GFS still has on its 18z run a half inch of precip falling before the 0 line goes north of here. But while temps are now below freezing, dew points are in the mid 20s which is too high for a WAA event to produce much snow. 1-3 is pushing it, unless we can get the precip in faster and heavier to start. What was front loaded is now evenly spread.

12-7 - didn't take long to get excited about this one. Its really tough though. The 18z GFS has 0 line on s shore of li at 18z with 6hr precip preceding this time at .5. 32 line at surface cuts the nw corner of CT. Accumlated snow map shows 6 inches which is down from the foot it showed at 12z

18z Nam has the 0 at 850 line south of Trenton. Sim radar has heavy snow falling with up to .5 output in preceding 6 hrs. Also shows stronger secondary storm than gfs above. Nam has temps just below 32 for danbury until 15z and the 0 at 850 until 18z. Accum snow map also shows 6-8 inches on the ground.

Again - I'll believe it when I see a temp under 25 Tuesday when I go to bed.

12-6 - all models, including ukmet blow this to our west. GFS still shows a lot of precip falling before 850 line goes north of us. Not so with NAM. Other models are hard to tell with the 12 hr increments, but they do show some support for a little snow to begin. All have quick turnover to rain. With no serious cold air in place and a 1024 high a little too far NE, this is likely a nonaccum event. Will only post on this further if snow amounts can become defined, or if serious cold (sub 25) happens tuesday night.

Not calling it snowstom yet. CAN double barrels it way to our west. Euro drives it right over us. Nogaps right over us. GFS to our north, but not to the lakes like CAN. UKMEt - has blizzard up the east coast. and this is 5 days away! Most have it starting as snow, changing to rain and possibly ending as snow. all have it way colder afterwards

3 comments:

SW CT WX said...

10pm temp of 32.2 is not going to cut this one. Maybe some evap cooling but should not last. Will wake with no snow

SW CT WX said...

10:30 0z gfs still hangs onto 6 inches and nam for 3-4. Weird. 33 now at DXR (32 here) and dp of 26. models still hold the warmer air aloft south of li at 12z. Precip now over us on radar but nearest sn ob is lehigh valley

SW CT WX said...

ended up with 6 inches before turning to sleet at 7:00. about 2 hours of sleet and rain (mostly) followed.

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