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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Feb 2 - all kinds of crazy

2-3 RESULT - most of Interior CT has totals in the 6-10 inch range, with the SE portion having 3-4  The storm dumped 7" first, then switched to sleet for several hours, before dropping another 3" in 3 hours at the end.  Total of 10" in Danbury.  There were several spots in CT which had 12-14, but not widespread.  Central NJ had 2-4, NE NJ had 4-8 and Sussex cty, and northern Passaic had generally 6-10.   Most of Hudson Valley north of 287 had 6-10.  Where I didn't forecast was LI, which had I it would have busted low.  They had mostly 4-8 (I was thinking 2-4) with a few under and one report of 10".  The bigger surprise to me was Albany which ended up with 10-14" and some higher.
Snowfall amounts

2-1  Southern CT remains right along the r/s line. Really should be snow/sleet/zr line. 0z GFS and 0z NAM went all snow for most of the state, 6z GFS and NAM went back to a 3 hr period of above 0c temps at 850.  Euro holding steady at keeping the 0 line closer to NYC. NWS still has us in a 10-14 inch range.  But 6zGFS (.88),0z Euro (.87)  and 6zNAM(.88)  all have less than 1" qpf.  The SREF's have over 1" but also have the 0c line at 850 on the CT MA border and only puts out 4" of snow in Oxford.  So with only the SREFs having over a 1" of qpf and it being the warmest with the least snow, and the other models either with less than 1" qpf and a chance for mixing, the call remains 6-10" for most of CT north of the Merrit.  4-8" for the coast.  We'll be closer to high end of the range if it doesn't mix, closer to the low end if it does.   

Euro qpf

NAM qpf

6z GFS precip

6z GFS snow map

SREF for oxford
In summary, with the qpf under 1" and temp profile close to marginal, I have a difficult time buying a 10-14" snow fall for north and central CT, and also think the 8-10 NWS call for SE CT is a bit high.  I'm thinking  6-10 for most of central to northern CT with 12" possible along the MA border NW of 84.  4-8 for southern CT. 
1-31 -Temps now an issue. Nam run become borderline for DXR and rain/ice for south of DXR.  Then 12z went back to all snow for all of CT.  GFS 12z came in much warmer at 850, with little snow south of DXR and snow/ice for DXR, still at 6-8 inches though. Areas north of 84 still mostly snow.  0z Euro held firm.  SREF's dropped from 9" of snow to 4" with ice introduced in the 9z run, not a good solution for us.  Still like 6-8 maybe 10 inches here, mostly front end snow.  Worried about liquid precip falling onto a wet snow on the trees and lines.

12z gfs at its warmest

12z nam at its warmest

6z nam at its warmest

1-30  Temps don't seem to be an issue (yet)  so just looking at latest precip maps most are .5 to 1".  This supports a 6-10 inch storm, perhaps a bit more depending on ratios.  Most models have the 850 line in between Philly and NYC.  This will cause some variability in forecasts depending on how that trends.  NAM is warmest so far and pulls the 850 line as far north as the CT coast.  North of NYC should be all snow though.  Need to watch any further shifts north.

Euro 12 precip

GFS 18z precip

NAM 18z precip

CMC 12z precip
Here's a view of the warmest run at 850. Most of NJ, NYC and LI get rain or freezing rain

1-30  No pics just yet, but the gfs, nam, cmc and euro all trending north and wetter.  Some qpf #s:  GFS: 0z  .51; 6z .54; 12z .63.  NAM 0z .25; 6z .5-.75; 12z .75-1 (note this is the end of the NAM range so the 0z run doesn't capture the entire storm)  Euro 0z .73 and 12z .95. UKMET is pretty far north, but cold enough from what I can tell for snow.  CMC went from exiting CONUS at OBX to exiting at NJ.   Euro snow map below seems overdone, but the way things are trending  could end up like this.   We should see at least warning criteria (6+) snow from this storm. 

CMC snow map

Attached Image

1-29 - models are no longer mayhemic.  Instead they are remarkably aligned, with some differences as to whether the storm exits ene or ne, and if it exits off OBX or Delmarva.  But no storms to the lakes, or off SC today.
GFS - all runs show system exiting off OBX and tracking ENE outside the BM.
GFS ensembles - also support the southeast solutions
But there is some precip associated:  0z is .41, 6z is .13 12z is.14

Euro - 0z misses us completely (0 precip) , 12z is more robust and brushes our area with .3 precip.  BTW it crushes us on the 5th with 1.34 qpf (-1 850s though)
12z euro

JMA is difficult between frames, but leaves us with about an inch of precip, so its the most aggressive now.

CMC 0z run looks great, 12z misses us completely
cmc 0z
 12z UKIE is similar to the 0z CMC.  0z ukie looked the same, but difficult to see between frames

ts MODEL MAYHEM for next Monday - 5 days out and they are all over the place.  Lots of images for this nuttiness

First lets start with the GFS - 18z yesterday had solid snow storm, 0z today goes to our north, 6z kinda right over us, 12z doesn't even have a storm, just a wave sliding south. 

Then there is the CMC and UKMET which have it running west of us, similar to the 0z GFS

Euro and DGEX are showing snowstorm

And yesterdays JMA which has nothing, not even a wave
GFS and Canadian Ensembles have a low south of LI as well.

12z Euro comes in looking like the 12z GFS - southern wave slides out.

Todays JMA came to the table

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