2-1 Southern CT remains right along the r/s line. Really should be snow/sleet/zr line. 0z GFS and 0z NAM went all snow for most of the state, 6z GFS and NAM went back to a 3 hr period of above 0c temps at 850. Euro holding steady at keeping the 0 line closer to NYC. NWS still has us in a 10-14 inch range. But 6zGFS (.88),0z Euro (.87) and 6zNAM(.88) all have less than 1" qpf. The SREF's have over 1" but also have the 0c line at 850 on the CT MA border and only puts out 4" of snow in Oxford. So with only the SREFs having over a 1" of qpf and it being the warmest with the least snow, and the other models either with less than 1" qpf and a chance for mixing, the call remains 6-10" for most of CT north of the Merrit. 4-8" for the coast. We'll be closer to high end of the range if it doesn't mix, closer to the low end if it does.
|6z GFS precip|
|6z GFS snow map|
|SREF for oxford|
1-31 -Temps now an issue. Nam run become borderline for DXR and rain/ice for south of DXR. Then 12z went back to all snow for all of CT. GFS 12z came in much warmer at 850, with little snow south of DXR and snow/ice for DXR, still at 6-8 inches though. Areas north of 84 still mostly snow. 0z Euro held firm. SREF's dropped from 9" of snow to 4" with ice introduced in the 9z run, not a good solution for us. Still like 6-8 maybe 10 inches here, mostly front end snow. Worried about liquid precip falling onto a wet snow on the trees and lines.
|12z gfs at its warmest|
|12z nam at its warmest|
|6z nam at its warmest|
1-30 Temps don't seem to be an issue (yet) so just looking at latest precip maps most are .5 to 1". This supports a 6-10 inch storm, perhaps a bit more depending on ratios. Most models have the 850 line in between Philly and NYC. This will cause some variability in forecasts depending on how that trends. NAM is warmest so far and pulls the 850 line as far north as the CT coast. North of NYC should be all snow though. Need to watch any further shifts north.
|Euro 12 precip|
|GFS 18z precip|
|NAM 18z precip|
|CMC 12z precip|
1-30 No pics just yet, but the gfs, nam, cmc and euro all trending north and wetter. Some qpf #s: GFS: 0z .51; 6z .54; 12z .63. NAM 0z .25; 6z .5-.75; 12z .75-1 (note this is the end of the NAM range so the 0z run doesn't capture the entire storm) Euro 0z .73 and 12z .95. UKMET is pretty far north, but cold enough from what I can tell for snow. CMC went from exiting CONUS at OBX to exiting at NJ. Euro snow map below seems overdone, but the way things are trending could end up like this. We should see at least warning criteria (6+) snow from this storm.
CMC snow map
1-29 - models are no longer mayhemic. Instead they are remarkably aligned, with some differences as to whether the storm exits ene or ne, and if it exits off OBX or Delmarva. But no storms to the lakes, or off SC today.
GFS - all runs show system exiting off OBX and tracking ENE outside the BM.
GFS ensembles - also support the southeast solutions
But there is some precip associated: 0z is .41, 6z is .13 12z is.14
Euro - 0z misses us completely (0 precip) , 12z is more robust and brushes our area with .3 precip. BTW it crushes us on the 5th with 1.34 qpf (-1 850s though)
JMA is difficult between frames, but leaves us with about an inch of precip, so its the most aggressive now.
ts MODEL MAYHEM for next Monday - 5 days out and they are all over the place. Lots of images for this nuttiness
First lets start with the GFS - 18z yesterday had solid snow storm, 0z today goes to our north, 6z kinda right over us, 12z doesn't even have a storm, just a wave sliding south.
12z Euro comes in looking like the 12z GFS - southern wave slides out.
Todays JMA came to the table