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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

September winter forecast update


Scrap what I predicted earlier.  La Nina is no longer forecast and instead a negative neutral signal is.  The only strong Nino to neutral winter we had in the last 50 years was 1983.  The good news is that the 83-84 winter produced fairly average amt of snow with most of CT and HV getting 40-50 inches.  Specifically - BDL at 44; DXR at 47; POU at 43.  The winter started off wild with 9 inches of rain in Danbury and 7 inches of snow.  All stations had a colder than normal December with DXR having a low of -2 and high of 55.  January was also cold, with BDL reporting a -21 but POU only -6. All stations had double digit snow. February warmed up and lacked snow - New Haven and NYC got 5", which is more than the inland stations.  Temps were 4-5 above normal. Lastly March swung back hard with temps 6-7 below normal across the area and DXR with 19" and POU reporting around 26".

Based on this analog, the current trend of warmer temps and our current drought, I'm going to go with temps cooler than normal for 3 of the 4 months, with one month -4-6 and one month +5-7 and two close to normal.  Precip 10-15%below normal (as opposed to the 35% defecit we are at now) - this factors in the moisture content.  I believe we will be in the 35-45 inch range for snow, but will also struggle with precip types more often.

Next step - I want to check ocean temps compared to 83 and the teleconnections.  See if those are far off.  Then october storm tracks and snow cover.

Teleconnections - '83 JAS period was positive NAO JA, neg S.  1.19 1.61 -1.12.  We have been negative overall so far  -1.76 -1.65.    NAO went neutral + OND 0.65 -0.98 0.29 and positive JFM 
1.66   0.72  -0.37.
AO spent most of its time in + territory except deep neg in March. 
0.131  1.098  0.167  1.369 -0.688  0.186/ 0.905 -0.303 -2.386

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