9-13 Florence will not hit as cat 3, maybe only cat 1, but still bad effects. Such as surge - Wrightsville Beach to be covered over.
And Rain - GFS and NAM keep it around for 48 hrs and generate similar rainfalls. The NAM ends while its still raining over the NC coast. 45" of rain not out of the question if this thing stays around like modeled. Actually, the models only had Harvey with 30", so they may be underdone here.
The storm continued to weaken after an eyewall replacement cycle. NHC pointed out there was some southerly shear, which many of us on WXDisco were pointing out, but others said not to count it. Dry air is also an issue. But the air really isn't that dry. This is the lower level wv shot this morning. Below that are the modeled humidity of the surface, 3000 feet, 5000 feet, 10,000 feet, 30,000 feet.
And the precipital water (how much water is in the entire column of air) which is fairly wet for the entire east coast.
My guess is that some dry air kept managing to get into the storm at 5000 feet or 25000 feet. Intensity is definitely hard to predict - there wasn't any hint that it would decline this much in the last day and a half. We did expect it to start declining right about now as it approached. The ADT history below is a good representation as to its weakening. There was also a upper level low over FL which provided some shear, but really these factors were so minor compared to the last time she declined.
So the good news is she's weaker. This of course means the hurricane winds are spread out more, but they are actually shrinking as well compared to earlier. Here's an estimate of those. TS storm winds are about 300 miles across.
It seems it will hit Wrightsville Beach, which is ironic. But may still end up a bit north. The call for Cape Fear to Cape Lookout was good. Looking like its WNW movement now
Cool satellite picture
Compare this loop to the one from 12:15 above.
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