Nov 7-8 Noreaster

11/8 - morning

Not much additional snow accumulated despite constant snowfall overnight.  Damage was minimal, a limb next to the driveway and bent over or snapped bushes.  Power remained on overnight as the winds knocked the snow from the trees and wires, but were not enough to blow over trees.

11/7 evening

Started snowing around 11 or so in the morning, came down hard for a few hours and piled up a few inches fast.  Snowed moderately the rest of the day with 8 inches on the grass here, 9.9 officially from the NWS for Danbury. Winds never amounted to anything, but they did get gusty later in the day.  Anenometer froze around 2pm so didn't get any readings here.

11/6
Afternoon - Models shift back west - but the precip doesn't amount to much here.  Southern NJ is jackpot.  Temps aloft and at the surface now to be below freezing most of the event, per 18z runs.  Main concern continues to be winds, at the coast over 40mph gusts to 60. Inland gusts to 50. Coastal flooding still an issue, with moderate flooding expected.   Strength of the storm varies, with some models coming in below 980 while others are 990 or higher.  But all models have snow or rain/snow mixes in their latest runs.  Below are some of the snow maps.

12zgfs

1

 12z nam

 18z gfs

 18z nam

 Euro Snow

I think it will snow!  I hope its just an inch or two. I'm worried about the precip being underdone by the Euro and GFS and overdone by the NAM (which is typical).  Snow for CT is showing up in the form of a band, like you would find in a tropical storm, and as that band comes through, it could snow hard, and that may be it.


Morning - 24-48 hrs away from the event.  Everything up in the air.
18z gfs went way east, 0z came back a bit west (so much for these that the winds weren't bad and there was a few inches of snow in S NJ and E CT.  6z is back right off the coast with snow in Philly.  Euro held tight until it moved a bit east for 12z and further east for 0z.  Both models have lows around 989 now. 0z cmc is way, way off the coast keeps pressure in 990's.  NAM deepens to sub 980 on its last three runs but has 100 miles between the runs, going back and forth. 18z and 0z runs had a couple inches of snow for S NJ, NYC and CT, but the 6z run has nothing.  UKMET is only model consistently out to sea with no precip.

Winds - GFS still has 60mph gusts for most of the area.  Latest NAM only has >50mph gusts for RI, Montauk, Cape Cod.  Euro gusts are <40kts 50="50" and="and" are="are" ct.="ct." ct="ct" e="e" for="for" greater="greater" gusts="gusts" kts="kts" li="li" nbsp="nbsp" nj="nj" nyc="nyc" p="p" ri="ri" some="some" there="there" w="w">
This mornings call - some rain/snow for a lot of the area, should be less than an inch of both, winds 15-20 mph inland with gusts to 30.  Coastal winds 20-30 with gusts of 40-50.  Coastal flooding less concerning than yesterday, water should still exceed the astronomical maximum, which usually means flooding.

11/5
Morning - tree clean up on the street.
CMC is the lowest at 967 - takes up coast, just offshore, keeps entire area below 0 at 850.  Stalls south of LI, then moves over martha's vineyard.  6z nam bottoms out at 975 but well east of the BM - little precip for anyone.  Then the 12z  brings the 975 low up into RI/MA border resulting in 50mph gusts over CT (not west of there though), and the snow map below.

Then there is the GFS - 6z run is crazy with snow for NW CT and Catskills.  Bottoms out 987mb, but keeps the low south of LI for a while. 

Euro is steady, showing snow 1-3 inches for much of CT and NW NJ with 6-9 in the Catskills.  Bottoms out at 983 off NJ with a move due east when south of LI.  Winds are tough, 40+kts on the shore, but inland not too bad.  Gusts are 40-50kts at max inland, 60kts+ along the coast and LI.

Surge predictions are 3-4 feet along the NJ coast and up to 5-7 feet in the Sound.  Wave chart below moslty 9-12 feet along NJ, higher in LI and north shore of Mass.

11/4
 Evening  -can still hear generators running
NAM has storm tracking well east of NJ with minimal affect to points west of New Haven. What is most shocking is that it goes to 965mb.  This is only rivaled by the CMC which takes it just southeast of the BM with 968 pressure.  Euro remains a coast hugger, but only as low as 980. 18z GFS takes it about 50 miles east of the euro, but still close to shore, and down to 978.Both models have gusts maxing out at 70mph.  JMA is rather east, but hits benchmark still with 981 pressure.  UKMET is similar to GFS with 980 low inside the BM. GFS has full support from its ensembles, Euro ens are a bit east of it, which is normal.  GGEM ensembles are way east of it.  So there is still some hope this thing goes further out to sea than expected.


Morning
CMC starts a 987 low off OBX, wed 7am, brings to a 969 low well off the coast, but close enough for precip and wind by wed 7pm, by thurs 7am its 966 low east of Pt Pleasant and south of RI, by thurs evening its 975 just to the north, northeast of the benchmark. 850 temps below 0 the entire time for most places west of CT river and nassau county.  Ground temps are in the mid 30's.  Precip for DXR is about an inch.   Track has north winds mostly along the coast except in the beginning.

UKMET has a 982 low off the MD coast on wed evening, brings to west of boston by thurs evening. Can't tell precip just yet or 850 temps.

JMA hits benchmark, but moves fast.

0z Euro forms 1004 low off Savannah on Tues evening. By wed morning, its 996 low off NC/SC.  By wed evening, its 984 low  100 miles off VA/NC border. Thurs morning its only up to DE and down to 980 pressure.  Thurs evening its 984 at 40/72, well inside the benchmark. Fri morning its 992 near ACK and headed east.   Winds - 850 winds turn east Tues nite.  By wed afternoon, they are over 75 kts from NJ to VA. Wed evening they are over 75 kts from NH to VA.  These may mix as gusts in heavier precip or in warm sector.  65+kt 850 winds last 36 hrs in the NYC area.  Surface winds:  by wed afternoon, +65kt winds are off shore blowing east and coastal sections are getting 30-50kt winds sustained.  Those winds do not get far inland, but gusts of 40-50mph can.  Snow - 850 temps are very close to supporting snow at the beginning of the event.  Amounts of 1-3 inches in N-NW NJ  and western CT are possible, while Central PA gets 6-10.

GFS - 0z brings 994 low 100 miles east of NC to 980, up 70 W over the benchmark and then over ACK.  6z run is 50 miles or so west of the 0 run.  850 temps adjust the same.  GFS is faster than Euro as well. Winds are comparable to Euro gusts and sustained.  Nothing like Sandy, but strong gusts anyway.

Snow - both 0 and 6z runs have an inch over most of nj.   Bergen county gets 4 in both runs as well, DXR gets 4-8 between the two runs.   The main difference is that the most snow on the 0z falls in the berkshires, the 6z is the catskills.  6z has more snow for the middle of nj, all the way down to Jackson.  Snow could cause major issues in NJ and Southern CT.

Waves  -look to be 12-15 ft at the height.


11/3 - Internet service restored!  Classic noreaster forecast to hit now...

Morning runs of Euro and UKMET have 986ish low tucked into the coastline.  Hurricane strength winds over water and into LI at times.   Low stalls as well only moving from SNJ to LI in 24 hrs.  This is probably worst cast scenario.

0z gfs was off the coast, giving us snow actually. Weaker 996 low.   This is best case scenario, except for the fact that there are still leaves on trees and snow is going to be wet and heavy.  But it does spare the NJ coast the worst of the winds and keeps them in the N direction.
6z run puts a 980 low over benchmark.  This covers all of NJ with snow - probably the worst case scenario as most trees still have leaves.

12z gfs brings 982 low right up the slot, into Montauk, and Rhode Island.  This is bad for the coast, but should spare most of the immediately affected areas from heavy wet snow.  However gfs snow map shows even more snow, and this is now the worst case scenario.  Most of the coast sees 40-50kt winds, but out of the north to north east.  This should limit coastal flooding a bit.

Sandy

Sun night - wasn't able to post much, out prepping, soccer, etc.  No real changes from below, other than the winds below are slightly lower.  Flooding has already occurred  in NJ and DE.  Power is already out in long island.  Winds are fairly calm here after a blustery start at Kenosia park.

Low still coming in around Ocean Cty.  Surge should be really really really bad.  Upton is saying surge in NY will be recordbreaking.  Landfall 5-9pm on Monday.


Sat night
Euro is furthest south, well that and NHC having landfall say Seaside Heights.  Other models still targeting NYC/Sandy Hook.  Below is wind map from Euro85-90 gusts over LI, 75mph gusts inland.
Surge can go up to 9 feet, waves 12-18.  This should be treated as a cat one hurricane for most of the area, cat two along the coast due to possible record surges. 

Sat morning - Buoy 41010 had 30ft waves, gusts of hurricane force, winds of 60-65mph. Pressure 981, now rising.
Models narrowed from LI to Cape May (GFDL is delmarva).  Most hits are now Monday late afternoon to early tues morning, centered on Monday evening.

Euro hits Cape May, sub 950.  Winds similar to fridays runs.  Much less cold air, less snow in WV as well.  Ensembles mean  still north around Point Pleasant. Control is Seaside.
0z GFS hits NYC from the SW monday evening, moves west until stalling in western pa.Precip 3-4 inches generally, with 6-10 along the coast in DE/MD. Heavy snow in WV, with 3-4 inches in most of PA and 1-2 in western NJ.
6z - backs off snow in NJ, 1-2 in PA, less in WV too.  Sub 950 landfall around Monmouth cty. Sustained Winds still of hurricane strength hit LI only.  Rest of NE is +30kts at least, with higher gusts..  Ensembles are too vague and literally circle is around NJ. 
A note on winds - many models showing 95kt winds at 850 (110mph).  Standard ratio is .8 for surface winds, so the models are half of what normally happens.  This could be concerning.
CMC hits NYC, sub 950
UKMET hits LI and NJ Coast, sub 950
0z Nam hits sandyhook, sub 960
6z hits Sandy Hook, sub 960, from the SW though
Nogaps hits NYC from the SW

I like the models with the SW approach - its odd to see a storm take a 90 degree turn so fast, without stalling.  We're looking at landfall late monday, most likely along the NJ coast, sub 955.


Fri afternoon
GFS - 948 over ACK on 12ztues, 946 low at dxr at 18z.  Just wanders around, tries to go up hudson valley thursday, finally exits ME on friday. Precip up to 3 inches for most of CT, NYC and NNJ. Winds over 65kts at its peak at 12z tues along the north shore of MA and the Cape.  40kt+ from Canada to NC.  Inland winds not too bad - sustained at DXR of 40kts but only for under 12 hrs.  Aside from the high winds along the coast in MA/NH/ME, this is the safest solution so far.
UKMET - NJ hit tues morn - due west.  Looks like 950mb
NAM - East LI at hr 84, looks like a New Haven hit?
Euro -going in over ACU with 940 low at 12z on Tues.  Winds start 6z Sunday on LI, 12z for the coast from the Cape to OBX.  +70kt winds hit the cape 0z Tuesday, with inland winds picking up.6z Tuesday, winds are over 75kts from NH to MD, with NJ coast mercifully only at TS Strength. by 12z Tuesday, inland winds (not gusts) over 45kts or 55mph. NYC, NNJ, Monmouth cty, Nassau all over 75kts.  18z winds ease to 40kts over most of the NE, with 65kts on NC/VA coast.  Not until 6z Sat do the winds along the coast go below 45kts


Fri Morning

Euro 0z
940-945 landfall near MD/DE border at 18z Monday. Winds>65kts from ME to NC (whole NE screen) on coast with trop storm winds+higher gusts inland.  In DXR/NYC area gusts>25kts start Sunday afternoon, peak at 60kts Monday afternoon and subside below 25kts late Tuesday night. Sustained +30kt winds start Sunday evening, peak  monday afternoon, with NYC getting 75kt winds and DXR only 50kts. They subside by Tuesday afternoon.  Total precip ranges from 3 inches for Cape May to 2" for most of NJ and CT to 1.25 for LI.

GFS 0z
948 landfall on LI at about 20z Tuesday (4pm?).  Lt rain starts late Sunday afternoon,  storm stalls in NYC area, moves to Boston around 21z Wednesday at 970mb, heads north of VT by Fri morn when the last of the rain hits.  Truly crazy run.  Even with all that rain, only 2.5 inches for CT with 3-5 in NJ.  Sustained winds of +30 kts start along the NJ shore Mon 6z and back off a bit.  East LI, ACK and CC starts at 18z Monday. By 0z Tuesday, the coast from Cape Ann to OBX is sustaining trop force winds.  12z Tuesday, 25kt winds are in DXR/NYC but CC/ACK getting hit with 60kts. By 18z, DXR and NYC are suffering sustained winds >30kts with LI and CC at 50+.Winds ease inland by 6z Wed, coastal areas still >40kts.  Thurs 6z winds along coast subside.

Euro Ens - place storm in NJ at 6z Tues.
GFS 0z ens - 970 low over NYC at 18z Tues.  Then stalls for a day and moves to VT by 18z Wed.
CMC - loops into ME Wed 6z with 951mb
DGEX hits NYC at 958 mb early Monday evening .  Then stalls in PA.  2-3 inches of rain.  Winds 65kts on Cape cod, inland well over 40kts.  But only lasts 12 hrs then subsides.
0z NAM puts a pancake low of 976 s of RI at hr 84.  Winds only 50kts top
6z nam has normal low of 960 of S of LI at hr 84 (mon 18z). Winds still not over 55kts anywhere.
6z GFS run has it hitting NYC dead on with 952 low 18z tues.  Then moving to PHL6z wed. Then back to NYC 18z wed. Over Keene NH on 18z Thurs, ME on Fri.
Nogaps into NJ with 962 low early monday afternoon.  Winds dont exceed 30kts except at coast and interior SNJ.
UKMET comes in somewhere between 952 and 970 around NYC tues afternoon.





Thurs Evening

All models, including HWRF show a threat to the EC.  Range is being narrowed with GFS hitting in NYC area, Euro on Delmarva.

18z GFS winds arrive 0z Tues and max out at 12z Tues for DXR area, with 70mph winds hitting LI.  Eye goes in near Asbury Park - remarkably, winds not that bad.
12z Euro winds start 18z Sunday, in coastal areas, max out at hurricane force 0z Tues, from ME to VA.  Go back below trop force by 18z tuesday.  So two days of +30kt winds for most of the Northeast, even inland.  The center goes in near DE/MD border, winds at Cape May are off scale at +75kts (85-90mph).  Euro is furthest south, for now.  Its ensembles have storm hitting closer to Toms River on Tuesday 12z.
JMA brings straight on hit to NJ.
Canadian hits NYC with 942 low.  850 winds at 90kts
UKMET hits LI
GFDL takes 70kts into Chesapeake at 930 mb on 18z monday.  Its winds not as widespread, but hard to tell. Look like only trop force winds up to s jersey.
HWRF changed late to an ots solution, again.
Nam, extrapolated looks like a NYC hit, as is DGEX, on Monday Morning. Winds of 60kts. 965 low. DGEX no longer has snow down into SC coast!

So the questions tonite - does it arrive Sunday night or Monday night?  Does it stall or keep moving?  Do the models keep pushing this further southwest and turn it into a NC/SC hit?  Does Sandy maintain strength at 105kts?  Lots of time for things to change, but it would be odd if this didn't hit the EC somewhere at his point.

BTW - no generators to be found.

I haven't mentioned precip yet - most models are capping it at 5", so who knows.  Typically the higher winds are on the E side of the low and the higher precip on the W side. 







Wed Evening
A day of back and forth.  Nogaps and Euro still steady with landfall between De and ME.  GFS 12z had landfall around Boston.  GFDL moved back to an offshore solution to hr 126, but could be retrograding afterward.  UKMET looks like it is similar to 12z gfs, out at sea and retrograding back, but only goes to 144.  CMC is back on board as well with a Boston hit.  JMA maintains an EC hit as well. The 18z GFS went back well east, but retrograded into Newfoundland.  So all but the HWrf are looking like a hit on land, just a manner of how, where and when.  I'm not even sure I'd rule out OBX yet.  DGEX is on board with hit on NYC at 964mb.  This actually seems reasonable!  But then again it has snow to the coast in North Carolina...

Wed Morn
Switching to new post as the charts below are picking up on a hurricane landfall.
First is the spread of hurricane models, not too many out to sea solutions left.  I don't buy the gdl southern solution just yet, particularly since the euro is taking this into NJ.  I wouldn't rule out a hit in the OBX either, but think ACY to BOS is the area looking most favorable, with BOS to Canada possilbly next if the storm isn't captured quickly enough by the trough (gfs solution).  GFS also has a non tropical storm forming over the NE Tues-Thurs, which looks formidable, and may even result in snow for the area.

 Second, pressure of 932 over DE, per latest gfdl run

 Last, 100kt winds near chesapeake bay at hr 114, they lower to 90 kts (105mph) upon landfall.

Models go crazy - October surprise, again.

10/23 morning update. Some mets catching on last night.
Gfs ens starting to shift to euro solution. Euro, cmc, no gaps, jam still make us landfall.  Jam is south of no, while the others center around NYC to southern new England.  Gfs is further west, showing the storm meandering between Bermuda and the US. Pressure on this mornings runs are still close to 930 on the euro and cmc.  Winds and precip did not match the intensity of the 12z euro yesterday as a 930 low would have winds over 65.

These have to be overblown on the pressure. I can see how baroclinic factors affect Sandy and make it explode, but let's see how strong she is and how close to Florida she gets before making prep.


10/22
Just randomly checked the models this morning to find that the Euro had a huge storm affecting the midatlantic and southern new england.  Tropical Storm comes out of Cuba, stalls in bahamas for a day, then gets trapped by an upper low over the CONUS.  As the baroclinic forces hit the storm it drops to 952 low off of AC and moves into PA.  Track is supported by the JMA, CMC and partially by the UK models, although timing varies.  EURO Ensembles are conflicting, with some of the storm being split out to sea and some remaining to affect the US.  Its wind field and 500 heights are in line with the operational model, but the slp map is way different.  GFS has the trop storm going way out to sea, but the upper low spawning another coastal which affects New England.  Euro maps show hurricane strength winds hitting from NJ to CT.   This would be devastating to NJ in particular.  On top of that, the 850 temps are below 0 - but the leftover tropical airmass at the surface should prevent any snow until western pa.

Euro surface

Euro winds

Euro 850 temps

CMC

JMA surface

GFS 6z map

Winter forecast

My wife is wishing for a snow dump in January and February.

Hard to see signs so far. Many are going with a much colder and snowier forecast than normal, others are saying it will be colder and snowier than last year, which doesn't take much.

After an unusually warm and snowless WINTER, its even more unusual to have them back to back. So its an easy forecast to say snowier than last year. Most forecasters are looking at the El Nino and how strong and developed it is forecast to be, but there are two very different solutions using that parameter. Either like last year, or like the year before. Odds say that it cannot be like last year again though I don't believe it will be much like the year before either.

We suffered last winter from a string of mostly positive NAO values. This started in the fall and lasted to March. Positive NAO = warmer and drier. The year prior we had a long string of negative NAO. Below is the snapshot of the NAO today: Note its mostly negative until September. Next is a graphic from an archive last Dec and how the NAO was acting. You can see a fairly back and forth pattern up until October when it stayed positive, mostly, until May. So if you look back at cycles, they are mostly 3 month, but in 2010 we had a prolonged negative NAO, and the cycles stretched to 6 months.

So if it flips positive in September, it is not likely to flip back until late Jan or Feb at the earliest. So based on NAO patterns I'm saying an above average temp until mid Jan when it normalizes and then goes colder in Feb/Mar. Snow is trickier, as our rain has been more severe than frequent. In Nov/Dec, a storm with 2" of precip typically is rain, until the end of Dec.

Next post will address the upper air motions, which resemble last years with highs moving in from the SW instead of the NW.

Tracking Leslie

With the dismal modeling of Isaac, which was originally out to sea, then up the coast, then Fl, then Tampa, panhandle and finally Louisiana, I thought it would be interesting to track Leslie and the furthest west she gets, before recurving, on each 0z and 12z run. Coordinates are W/N

9-4
0z Euro 68/35 on 9/10
0z gfs 67/33, now west of Bermuda
Crazy uncle CMC is now back on meds with 68/35ish
UKMET at 120 is at 68/33
I would call this a consensus, but still interested to see a) if Isaacs remnants which dove south tangle with the front coming through the midwest and start something on either side of FL and b) or is there a cut off low instead that influences Leslie a bit farther west. Most longer range models showing landfall in Canada at this point. Utimate endgame still has some spread per graphic below.


9-3
0z Euro 68/36 on 9/9
0z GFS 63/24 today -it brings it east a bit then due north along 62W until 9/10
Crazy Uncle, CMC still heads it towards the Cape and hits Maine
Nogaps east of GFS
UKMET makes it to 70/35 hr 144
Spread between UKMET and Nogaps is 540 miles at hr 144

12z GFS 63/34 before turning ots
12z EUro 69-36 Grazes Cape cod, follows coast from Maine to NS.
12z CMC getting close to Cape Cod and Maine
12z UMKET slowing down, but still heading toward Conus at 144.

12z Model Spread is widening again. System is weakening since this mornings huge convection and cloud tops at -86--88c. NHC calling it 7mph, but looks stationary over last 6 hrs. Oddly no 2pm advisory


9-2

12z euro 66/36 on 9/8
12z gfs 65/35 on 9/9
0z euro 67/35 on 9/8
0z GFS 63/24 on 9/3 and 63/33 on 9/9

fwiw, cmc has it breaking 70w at hr 144 around 34n (Crazy Uncle from the north -see below pic)
Hwrf an GFDS have it going fairly strait north with a few wobbles west. Hwrf goes towards Bermuda at the end of its run on the 13th, almost at 64/32. GFDL goes north along 33W to the end of its run on the 8th.

Convection is rather strong tonite too, center is under the convection but on the northern edge



9-1 - may not be as interesting as thought...
12z Euro 65/30 on 9/7 hits Bermuda, almost dead on
12z GFS 63/26 on 9/6 heads due north after
GFDL and HWRF are similar, but dont go out as far
Model spread is tighter than 8/31, but split between heading west or east of Bermuda, or looping around


0z GFS at 62/26 -well east of Bermuda
6z GFS at 60/26 - well east of Bermuda
0z Euro 64/26 -just east of Bermuda


While Leslie is still not a hurricane, she is much stronger and has a more organized appearance than Isaac did at this point. Weaker storms, as noted with Isaac, go further west and can miss troughs easier. Model spread shows storm slowing down and the models really have no idea after 72 hrs - some loop it around, some go west more go east. Leslie may be a hurricane later today. Shear looks to be a problem as the ADT has the center north of the main convection. NHC not intensifying much beyond 80 mph.

8-31

6z GFS goes to 70/35 and 69/40 - takes it into Maine

0z Euro at 68W34N on 9/8
0z GFS has it at 67W/36N and 66w/40n
GFDL at 63/25
Model spread is between Charleston and literally, Galway.



12z GFS takes it to 66/35, just west of Bermuda, hits Canada
12z Euro goes to 67/34, just west of the GFS, but sharply recurves

8-30

The 0z run of Euro has Leslie just to the SE of the benchmark on 9/8.
The 0z run of the GFS has Leslie at 55W 43N on 9/8
Model spread has it as far as 60W at 25N

12z Euro is at 67W/36 on 9/9
12z GFS has it at 61W/27N on 9/4

This will wake you up

GFS has major hurricane (Isaac?) off Long Island on the first of Sept! Shades of last year!

8-20

Euro and GFS have a ridge in the Atlantic that is too strong for a system to hit directly from the Atlantic. Instead, they take Isaac into the Caribbean and around the ridge up into Florida or the Eastern Gulf. From there its possible to get up the seaboard. Keeping an eye out still. It hasn't developed yet and the stronger it gets the more likely it will head more north. Staying weak will push it further west.

8-21 update morning

The euro keeps it weak and passes over Jamaica befo it tightens up and hits the central gulf coast. GFS is just north of Jamaica, passes over Cuba, hits near the Keys, then again near S Carolina. These are the furthest south and west tracks. Gfs ensembles all take it up the east coast. Euro ensembles all through the Carribean. The hurricane models mostly take it near to the north or over Hispaniola, then up the East Coast. Cmc and ukmet are also tonthe right of the gfs. Right now the storm is starting to gain a Central dense overcast in the center, but remains a fast mover and subject to moderate shear. Once it slows down more, it should develop more. The earlier it does that, the further north it goes.

8/27

Isaac still hasn't wrapped itself up, despite its core staying away from land. Its weakness resulting in a further west movement. Also, the trough coming through the US, which seems so strong, has stalled in the southern half of the country. So, the Euro, per above, was correct so far in the end game. Todays run of the Euro is scary for NOLA. The storm intensifies as it nears, and stalls just to the east of Lake Pontchartrain, keeping northerly winds of at least 40mph driving water toward the city for about 48 hrs. The rains first arrive in NO at 12z Tuesday the 28th and continue until 6z on Friday. This would be extreme. Wind wise, just to the east of NO is hit rather hard with 36 hrs or longer of hurricane strength winds. Problem with the Euro model is that the wind chart maxes as 75kts and the rain chart maxes at 5inches. Both of these will be exceeded.
CMC follows the Euro, but not as strong
UKMET follows CMC- like Euro but weaker
NAM follows CMC, but doesnt go stronger than 996 and winds don't go above 45kts at the surface. Flight level winds never above 55kts.


GFS runs so far today track it southwest of NO, just over the delta. IT too slows the storm down as it reaches the coast. This puts NO in the windier section and storm surge from the gulf, which I trust more than a surge from LP (as in Katrina). GFS doesn't strengthen Isaac to a hurricane though.


HWRF takes it to 100kts, just to west of NOLA
GFDL takes it into E Texas, with 66kt being the top wind

New month, new storms

Per last post, Ernesto broke the shear and dry air, but struggles even today. But it looks the best it has all day right now. It should continue fairly week for another day or two. Models bring it to life once past Jamaica. I'm not thinking it hits the US as of now, but we'll see how the ridge holds out.

Then two more areas pop up - one near the Cape Verde islands, which is huge and strong. Long range models grab it then destroy it. One model taking it to the NE of the islands and recurving. Others devolve it into a wave. Right now there is an area of 20+kt sheer on its north side, displacing the divergence aloft. If it can shake that, there is a lot of energy to work with, moreso as it heads toward warmer water.

An area off Florida is where remnants of a tropical wave from last week and an old front have converged. Need to watch this interesting feature. Tstorms are plenty, its just whether they can spin up. The NAM does spin it into a low eventually and brings it into N Florida. Euro keeps it a wave. Its near an area of 20-30kt shear, but there a slot of no shear developing.