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Friday, January 8, 2016

Jan 16-18

1-16 - result - rain.  Some mix in MA and UNY.

1-15  Afternoon - GFS is warmest and with the most precip.  Euro and NAM runs are within a degree of being a frozen event.  So right now, its 80% likely all rain, 10% mixed, 10% accumulating snow. 

Morning  Euro now has Western CT borderline for snow, and Hudson Valley, Catskills and Poconos prime for snow.  GFS not as cool.   The 980 low below goes from Delmarva to benchmark, a classic major noreaster path.  The problem is the lack of cold air.  As the storm deepens, it generates its own cold air, which the Euro is reflecting as it is a 980 low vs a 988 low for the gfs 6z.  The 0 at 850mb line is about 50-70 miles NW of the euro on the gfs.  CMC is also weaker and further south, showing only rain. NAM is inbetween GFS and Euro - temporarily deepening and cooling off the boundary layer, but moving the storm a little east and not as strong, with the 850 line just to the NW of BDL/DXR/POU.  But still gives the Berkshires and Hudson valley north of the CT line snow.  Not much precip in NEPA though and the 850 line stays north of NJ. 

1-14  quick afternoon update - Euro, RGEM and GFS bring storm back to BM on the 12z runs.  Upper HV and Catskill, Berkshires, Poconos could have some snow.  GFS much weaker than before - interesting twist.  GFS also has a nice, compact snow storm for the 23rd.    18z NAM on board now with low inside BM
Euro 12z
gfs 12z




Morning  Models reach consensus.  One storm goes to lakes, other storm passes to our east.  There is a line of moisture between the two that moves over us and its rain.  NAM, Euro, GFS, CMC, RGEM, UKMET, GEFS and NAEFS all look to be passing SE of the BM.   EPS still has it inside, but rain. 
Will monitor and post only if there are further changes.  note - did have another dusting this morning and there could be some mix Sat morning, but more likely just rain.

Nothing all that promising on the EPS or GEFS for the next 15 days. Storms slide out to sea until days 10-15 when it warms up and cutters to the lakes show up.

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1-13  12z update  - 12z gfs goes to only .29 precip with 850 temps hovering around 0.  Euro keeps 850 temps under 0c, has .22" of precip.  Lower level temps are still a little warm though so it may melt on the way down, or fall as wet snow.  The Euro actually looks like the earlier NAM run where an arm of moisture reaches out to the GL low.  CMC still bullish with a 976 low hitting nyc and eastern PA getting some good snow.

12z CMC


 Morning impression - models still in disarray.  All are sensing a stronger southern storm, but the Euro operational shifted to an almost out to sea solution.  The last three runs of the GFS are showing a 972 low passing outside, over and inside the benchmark. CMC has a 964 low passing inside the bm hitting Maine, with just about all of New England as rain.  850 temps still remain just a bit too warm. RGEM shows a 968 low over Cape Cod canal which lowers to 960 by the time it hits Maine.  Maine does score some heavy snow inland from this.  The GFS runs try to cool off that level, but its not impressive enough compared to the strength of the offshore low.  Euro is cool enough now at 850 but the bulk of the precip misses right.  UKMET shows the low moving from Columbia SC at hr 72 to Nova Scotia at hr 96.  850s also quite above 0c at hr 72.   FWIW - NAM looks like the Euro, with an arm of moisture between the GL low and the coastal moving through at hr 78 - 850s support frozen, 925mb layer too warm.
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1-12  So, turns out you can't just copy and paste the images.  It pastes the link instead, and that gets updated, so disregard the pics from 1-11.  The trend from 1-11 has continued with the GFS going from a 992 low over Cape May at 7am sat to 988 east of Delmarva at 6z to 984mb low east of ACY.   However, the northern stream storm is doing some dirty work to bring the warm air, surface and 850 levels, up the coast prior to the southern storm.  Below are the 850 heights and temps from Euro and GFS. If the 850 low can transfer earlier and a bit more to the south, that 0c line may make it down across CT and the hudson valley.    So still mostly rain with a chance to turn to snow at the end so far for CT.  But that line isn't so far away anymore and while it may shift northwest again, the southern storm may continue to strengthen over the runs and draw that line further south.  Trending well - see what happens tomorrow.  Another storm exits off OBX on the 17th/18th. 
Euro mslp, precip and 850 line

Euro once 850 lows separate

GFS just after 850 lows separate

12z gfs mslp


1-11  Unbelievably, the story of this winter, the storm is now going to the lakes.  However, there is some signs of a stronger secondary/double barrel forming, as seen on the Euro.  But the air in front is just too warm.  This despite the cold blast with snow showers coming on the 12th/13th.
Euro with stronger secondary
 CMC trended colder from 0z to 12z, as did the Euro
12z CMC

So its not time to stop coverage on this one. 

1-8  Next time frame for a storm is the 17th to 19th.  Cold air will be in place for this one, and timing should be right.  Now whether it goes to our west (snow to rain), east (snow) or out to sea needs to be worked out.  0z gfs seemed tame on this, as did 0z eps which just misses.  The 6z GFS puts out over 2" of precip, mostly snow.
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.38  LON =  -73.46

                                            06Z JAN08   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
MON 06Z 18-JAN   1.0    -3.1    1011      95      99    0.07     547     538    
MON 18Z 18-JAN   1.5    -2.4    1008      93      98    0.18     545     538    
TUE 06Z 19-JAN   1.2    -4.8     999      96      99    0.78     539     540    
TUE 18Z 19-JAN   1.0    -5.1     994      95      97    0.63     533     538    
WED 06Z 20-JAN  -0.9    -1.3    1004      95      94    0.17     539     536 
 
 
crazy 6z gfs run
more likely 0z gfs run
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Euro operational looks out to sea
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EPS also out to sea, but closer than op
 CMC is inland
 

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