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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

White Christmas watch

12-26 - had inch of snow fall Christmas Eve, making it a white Christmas.  Also had flurries early in the day.

12-12  White Christmas, defined as having snow on the ground. Will also include whether a storm will be in the area on the 24th or 25th.

GFS 0z ,6z 12z run has white christmas.  No storms in the period.


Dec 16-20

12-14 - Looking like rain (At least this morning)

Morning - Still no consensus whether its model to model or run to run of each model.   Can't even tell if its a big or small storm let alone rain or snow.  There will be precip though.

Euro - storm heads to Michigan, peters out on Sunday. Snow to start, quick change to rain.  No transfer to the cost.  Storm forms TN, rides through WV to off ACY (988) overnite Monday.  Heads over LI and N into CT as 988 low on Tuesday out to the Cape Tues nite.   All rain except the beginning and end.  Ensembles are east of the operational with the storm over the BM and temps close to snow. 

0z gfs - Rain sunday as low heads to UP of Michigan.  It never really transfers and forms secondary until Monday afternoon and that is to our east.  Wednesday's storm is out to sea, with a inverted trough bringing some snow to the area.  Ens has front end snow (briefly) and transfers off  to a 1005 low near the BM Monday night.  Next storm forms over SC on Tuesday VA coast Tues night to just inside the BM with snow falling west of the Hudson and in NW CT. Snow falls lightly on Wed in the entire area, but not much.

6z GFS - rain on sunday as low peters out over Michigan and secondary forms off Monmouth cty.   Rain is fairly light and cold.  Clears out Monday afternoon as a broad area of low pressure runs from Canada to TN - which then starts to form a new 1000mb low over OH - this is much further north than any previous run. That low slowly moves over the metro area, going to 988 basically right over DXR.  The SW area of the low has snow over NNJ.  The low tracks due east along the CT coast with all types of precip, albiet lite. Ensembles mean does have the transfer and it moves over the metro area then east.  Has it over BM on early Wed morning

UKMET has low heading to MI, reforming in S. Ohio, then heading just to our NW.
CMC on AWPRO is a mess - can't tell whats going on there but eventually a low  forms of OBX and goes near the BM on Wed.   RGEM does start as some light snow, quickly turns to rain on Sunday.  Main low stalls over Lake Superior, secondary tries to form due south off NC.  A second secondary forms over Indiana and both secondaries move north. By Tuesday morning, the coastal secondary fades, the inland secondary is 994 near South Bend. By later in the day, that low peters out and a coastal secondary secondary forms well offshore by 1pm on the 18th.  That low moves NE to the SE of the BM while another low forms South of LI.  Model only goes until Tuesday night. The CMC on the Ewall takes over at hr 132 with a low near the BM and snow across the area.

DGEX - has low close to us, but is too cold and shows rain turning to snow.


12-13 -Still looking strange - there will be a storm, somewhere, sometime, but which storm takes over is still in question.

0z ECMWF has completely different look  than yesterday.  Third storm - much weaker low starts off OBX at 998, tracks east, then north just east of the BM, not bringing much precip, but keeping it colder. So it loops east, then north, then northeast to get to the BM, and its 976 by the time it gets there.  IT also has a stronger (than previous run) secondary storm going off OBX  to just SE of the BM on tues - looks like its 996mb, so it doesn't generate enough cold air for snow, but the 850 line is just to our north. 

CMC 0z has it snowing from Sun-Thurs as multiple lows pass through with the strongest a blizzard on thurs.

0z GFS Pushes "warm" front through Sunday night, no real precip.  1004 secondary forms around the BM, but the 540 rain snow line is well into NYS and central New England monday night.  Meanwhile monday night has a weak 1000mb low over the NC VA border going to 992 off SNJ, to 988 s of LI, to 984 over the CT/RI border.  Too close for snow at first.  But it stalls over CT/RI and the cold air catches up.  But the precip is winding down as the storm has occluded by then.  It then heads SE to the BM and out to sea.  Maybe some snow on the back end for CT, interestingly, C and S NJ get snow.

6z GFS loses it.  A weak 1000mb storm over the UP of Michagan, degenerates.  There is no transfer to the coastal for a secondary and there is no third storm.

12-12 evening

Normally the Euro as shown is a blizzard.   But it tracks up the coast then east.  Yes at this frame we are getting snow, but not a blizzard. 


12-11

A really complicated and confused pattern is evolving.  We are going from seeing storms cutting to the lakes on the 17th, to forming secondaries to our northeast, to secondaries over us, to secondaries over the SE and then back to over us, or just flat out moving east once they get to the lakes.  Most runs of the GFS showing that these first series of shortwaves are weak, and either over us or to our north resulting in perhaps some front end frozen precip, but mostly light rain.

UKMET has straight run to the lakes, CMC is showing a transfer in New England, but with some front end light snow.  Euro is more complicated-  the storm gets to the central Lakes, dies and another reforms near the TN Valley, to W Virginia, goes to a 988 low over Sandy hook, then to ACK.  Only northern sections of CT and HV get frozen, and its only marginal.  DXR may see some front end and back end  - Euro has about 3 inches from this.

Then a second storm is trailing for the 19th.  The Euro takes it from the TN Valley, to a 988 low off Delmarva, goes to 980 over Cape May (due north??) with rain for most of Tristate.  Then it moves off ACY at 976 and the snow line moves into the Tristate with all but the coasts and LI turning to snow.  Below is the resulting snow map

However, the GFS is having none of this.  The 0z run had a similar 976 low south of the benchmark, but the rain snow line is back from central vt, to ROC, to OH.  Way too warm for that set up. Eventually the snow would move in, but very late.  It bottoms out in the 960s as it pulls away - note and intensifying storm creates its own cold air, so have to throw that run out temp wise and probably strength wise.  6z run starts weaker, keeps the snow line to about Albany. But as it intensifys off the coast to a 972 low, it moves SE (???) and still keeps the snow line from coming in until the end.

12z GFS just in and it brings the second low across VA (996) to over Chesapeake (990), over S NJ (984), NYC (980), then due east out to sea.  No snow at all locally, but ski areas get it good.   I think the strength is more appropriate, but the track is too close to NYC for any snow, despite the storm deepening. 

Friday, November 30, 2012

December 10th

12-5 - still a lot of players on the field and with it different solutions.  None of the current model runs have much if any snow for our area, but there is considerable differences with how different features play out.

Latest euro brings front through today (weds) and stalls the next front to our north on Sat and Sun (8&9) with weak impulses running up it until a weak 1004 low forms over lake Erie and exits to our northwest. As it exits, a cold front is pulled through.  Euro has a disturbance at the end of this front, and forms a 1008 low off the BM on Tuesday throwing back some snow showers Tues evening, but nothing accumulating.  This differs from the 12z run yesterday in that the front stalling is further north for the 12z run, and the 1004 low that forms is over MI and too weak to drag the cold front ove us.  The shortwave at the bottom of the front strengthens to 998 low and runs from Elmira through VT. 

0z gfs has the first front clear as above, but a 1012 low forms along the second front and goes to our NW, but brings the front briefly to our south on Sunday.  It clears out Monday then a 980 low bombs up through the great lakes on Tuesday bringing the front back as a warm front. 6z is similar, but a bit weaker on the main storm in the GL.  12z run doesn't get the front through all the way either, but puts a 988 low over buffalo. 

Major difference in GFS is that the trough goes negative vs Euro where the trough keeps going positive.  This is usually reversed, so don't know which to trust. 

 CMC 0z run supports the negative tilt and bomb the GFS has, but is further west.  It also has the feature that forms off the coast after frontal passage that the Euro has.   UKMET is too slow with system, but looks like it will go to the GL.   Nogaps has its focus on the kicker system, bringing a weaker low through upstate ny and sending the kicker to the mid atlantic



12-3 - Euro waffles, GFS comes and goes - see tale of two euros - one has it coming up the apps/coast and the other (12hr later run) is through the lakes.

 12z run from 12-2
0z run from 12-3




12-1
Euro on board with storm of moderate strength for us with the r/s line to our south in hr 240 (11th), but ensembles have it weaker and earlier.  CMC has  storm on the 9th, to our south, but warmer and with another following it to our west at the end of the run which looks to be an Apps runner.  GFS 6z brings a 1004 low up west of the Apps.  0z gfs has the cold air in sooner, with a weak storm going ots off NC on the 9th.





11-30 Possible issues with 12/10 - still 10 days out but Euro and CMC are onto it, GFS 0z is a day behind and 6z is missing it.  GFS had previously had the storm in 6 consecutive runs.



Wednesday, November 21, 2012

November 28th

11-25 -evening.  Only the 12z run of the UKMEt has accumulating snow.  All other runs out to sea.  NWS  and Accuweather still have snow in the forecast, nws is 60%.  There could be snow showers or flurries, but Euro has.1 precip for us, with .25-.5 in S NJ.  18z GFS has no precip for us, with .25-.5 in s nj whereas the earlier 12z run had .01 for us and .1 for NJ. NAM had .25 for S NJ fora 12z and .1 for 18z. For dxr only .01.

11-24 evening.  Earlier runs of the NAM showed a southern, supressed storm.  18 moved into our area with a snow event.  CMC has moved to a right off the coast to BM snow event.  GFS 12z looked like it was a low forming over NJ moving over the BM, still too close for snow in the city, but snow here.  18z run has it out to sea.  Nogaps blows the storm up, inside the BM.  0z NAM has surpessed storm barely forming. UKMET has storm coming right over us and really deepening as it passes. JMA is way out to sea - it only sees the southern stream energy and no northern branch, whereas all the others are focused on the northern branch. 

My thoughts are either 3-6 or nothing.  

11-24  GFS caving to Euro, Euro comes in a bit further north.  GFS now with low  deep in the pocket with Euro outside the BM.  GFS running 12-18hrs slower in timing as well.  Both show some snow accumulation.  CMC more towards Euro, if not slower and further east.  UKMET supporting GFS.  Still time for GFS to go further south and Euro further north.





11-22
Euro vs GFS




Thanksgiving morning - Euro has it out to sea, 0z GFS takes it from OK, up the Ohio river to Pit,over to ALB and up to Northern NH.
6z takes it from OK, up the ohio river, but only to the PA/MD border, then over NNJ and to CT/RI.  12z run should be interesting.
CMC forms in OK, moves to IL, then to Middle of PA, stalls/deepens, goes to albany to boston. Odd.
UKMET is from MO to Buffalo
Model spread is 500-600 miles at this point.

11/21
Have been watching this one for a while, but the runs were going either towards the G Lakes or up the Apps. Euro 12z flipped to a coastal today.   This is probably unlikely as its the only run so far to do so and has no other support.  Below is the picture. Weaker storm, but 850 temps favorable for snow.  At this point Chances are less than 50% this happens.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Post 150 - booorrrrinng

Sometimes boring is good - below are the maps for total precip for the weeks ending 11/23 for gfs, week ending 11/30 for gfs and total two weeks from the euro ensembles.  Having virtually no precip for two weeks  is what we need around here.

Euro
 GFS week 1














GFS week 2

Friday, November 9, 2012

November 20th giver or take a day

11/15 - Yesterday, Euro moved this out to sea, way out to sea, as did GFS.  They have consistently been doing so for about 36 hrs, so coverage will drop on this one.

11/11   Very strange GFS 12z run.  LP starts developing on Monday, 19th,  off NC, meanders around between NC and Bermuda until Friday, when another LP forms off NJ and heads east Sat and Sun.  Puts some snow down in Catskills, N NJ.  



Euro Op keeps things out at sea, the ensb control has a 998 low over Sandy Hook on wed nite.  CMC brings low north from  east of FL on the 18th to Canada on the 20th, brushing coastal sects with a little snow perhaps.

Still looks like something will happen between the 20th and 23rd


Morning   GFS still has storm on 20th.  50-60mph winds for CT, but too warm for snow, as of now.  GFS storms typically are placed too far east until day 3-4 so this may come back much closer.





11/10  - Still on the board but timing and temps make or break.

18z gfs snow

18z gfs sfc

 Euro


11-9   Watching a very interesting and disturbing possibility for the third week of November.  Why is it titled give or take a day?  Euro ensemble control has a subtropical storm forming in the Bahamas going up the coast.  Precip moves in 7am on th 18th. It pulls out 1am on the 21st.  With a big high moving out over the Atlantic and an old front lingering, this scenario makes sense.  The blocking and slowing of the storm also makes sense with a 1040 high just north of Maine.  So its not a long shot, but previous runs had cut off lows rolling through the country.  850 temps support snow -and a lot of it!  0z GFS has the storm forming as well, but much further east - but has a clipper come in under that big high on the 21st.






Saturday, November 3, 2012

Nov 7-8 Noreaster

11/8 - morning

Not much additional snow accumulated despite constant snowfall overnight.  Damage was minimal, a limb next to the driveway and bent over or snapped bushes.  Power remained on overnight as the winds knocked the snow from the trees and wires, but were not enough to blow over trees.

11/7 evening

Started snowing around 11 or so in the morning, came down hard for a few hours and piled up a few inches fast.  Snowed moderately the rest of the day with 8 inches on the grass here, 9.9 officially from the NWS for Danbury. Winds never amounted to anything, but they did get gusty later in the day.  Anenometer froze around 2pm so didn't get any readings here.

11/6
Afternoon - Models shift back west - but the precip doesn't amount to much here.  Southern NJ is jackpot.  Temps aloft and at the surface now to be below freezing most of the event, per 18z runs.  Main concern continues to be winds, at the coast over 40mph gusts to 60. Inland gusts to 50. Coastal flooding still an issue, with moderate flooding expected.   Strength of the storm varies, with some models coming in below 980 while others are 990 or higher.  But all models have snow or rain/snow mixes in their latest runs.  Below are some of the snow maps.

12zgfs
1
 12z nam
 18z gfs
 18z nam
 Euro Snow

I think it will snow!  I hope its just an inch or two. I'm worried about the precip being underdone by the Euro and GFS and overdone by the NAM (which is typical).  Snow for CT is showing up in the form of a band, like you would find in a tropical storm, and as that band comes through, it could snow hard, and that may be it.


Morning - 24-48 hrs away from the event.  Everything up in the air.
18z gfs went way east, 0z came back a bit west (so much for these that the winds weren't bad and there was a few inches of snow in S NJ and E CT.  6z is back right off the coast with snow in Philly.  Euro held tight until it moved a bit east for 12z and further east for 0z.  Both models have lows around 989 now. 0z cmc is way, way off the coast keeps pressure in 990's.  NAM deepens to sub 980 on its last three runs but has 100 miles between the runs, going back and forth. 18z and 0z runs had a couple inches of snow for S NJ, NYC and CT, but the 6z run has nothing.  UKMET is only model consistently out to sea with no precip.

Winds - GFS still has 60mph gusts for most of the area.  Latest NAM only has >50mph gusts for RI, Montauk, Cape Cod.  Euro gusts are <40kts 50="50" and="and" are="are" ct.="ct." ct="ct" e="e" for="for" greater="greater" gusts="gusts" kts="kts" li="li" nbsp="nbsp" nj="nj" nyc="nyc" p="p" ri="ri" some="some" there="there" w="w">
This mornings call - some rain/snow for a lot of the area, should be less than an inch of both, winds 15-20 mph inland with gusts to 30.  Coastal winds 20-30 with gusts of 40-50.  Coastal flooding less concerning than yesterday, water should still exceed the astronomical maximum, which usually means flooding.

11/5
Morning - tree clean up on the street.
CMC is the lowest at 967 - takes up coast, just offshore, keeps entire area below 0 at 850.  Stalls south of LI, then moves over martha's vineyard.  6z nam bottoms out at 975 but well east of the BM - little precip for anyone.  Then the 12z  brings the 975 low up into RI/MA border resulting in 50mph gusts over CT (not west of there though), and the snow map below.




Then there is the GFS - 6z run is crazy with snow for NW CT and Catskills.  Bottoms out 987mb, but keeps the low south of LI for a while. 


Euro is steady, showing snow 1-3 inches for much of CT and NW NJ with 6-9 in the Catskills.  Bottoms out at 983 off NJ with a move due east when south of LI.  Winds are tough, 40+kts on the shore, but inland not too bad.  Gusts are 40-50kts at max inland, 60kts+ along the coast and LI.

Surge predictions are 3-4 feet along the NJ coast and up to 5-7 feet in the Sound.  Wave chart below moslty 9-12 feet along NJ, higher in LI and north shore of Mass.



11/4
 Evening  -can still hear generators running
NAM has storm tracking well east of NJ with minimal affect to points west of New Haven. What is most shocking is that it goes to 965mb.  This is only rivaled by the CMC which takes it just southeast of the BM with 968 pressure.  Euro remains a coast hugger, but only as low as 980. 18z GFS takes it about 50 miles east of the euro, but still close to shore, and down to 978.Both models have gusts maxing out at 70mph.  JMA is rather east, but hits benchmark still with 981 pressure.  UKMET is similar to GFS with 980 low inside the BM. GFS has full support from its ensembles, Euro ens are a bit east of it, which is normal.  GGEM ensembles are way east of it.  So there is still some hope this thing goes further out to sea than expected.


Morning
CMC starts a 987 low off OBX, wed 7am, brings to a 969 low well off the coast, but close enough for precip and wind by wed 7pm, by thurs 7am its 966 low east of Pt Pleasant and south of RI, by thurs evening its 975 just to the north, northeast of the benchmark. 850 temps below 0 the entire time for most places west of CT river and nassau county.  Ground temps are in the mid 30's.  Precip for DXR is about an inch.   Track has north winds mostly along the coast except in the beginning.

UKMET has a 982 low off the MD coast on wed evening, brings to west of boston by thurs evening. Can't tell precip just yet or 850 temps.

JMA hits benchmark, but moves fast.

0z Euro forms 1004 low off Savannah on Tues evening. By wed morning, its 996 low off NC/SC.  By wed evening, its 984 low  100 miles off VA/NC border. Thurs morning its only up to DE and down to 980 pressure.  Thurs evening its 984 at 40/72, well inside the benchmark. Fri morning its 992 near ACK and headed east.   Winds - 850 winds turn east Tues nite.  By wed afternoon, they are over 75 kts from NJ to VA. Wed evening they are over 75 kts from NH to VA.  These may mix as gusts in heavier precip or in warm sector.  65+kt 850 winds last 36 hrs in the NYC area.  Surface winds:  by wed afternoon, +65kt winds are off shore blowing east and coastal sections are getting 30-50kt winds sustained.  Those winds do not get far inland, but gusts of 40-50mph can.  Snow - 850 temps are very close to supporting snow at the beginning of the event.  Amounts of 1-3 inches in N-NW NJ  and western CT are possible, while Central PA gets 6-10.

GFS - 0z brings 994 low 100 miles east of NC to 980, up 70 W over the benchmark and then over ACK.  6z run is 50 miles or so west of the 0 run.  850 temps adjust the same.  GFS is faster than Euro as well. Winds are comparable to Euro gusts and sustained.  Nothing like Sandy, but strong gusts anyway.

Snow - both 0 and 6z runs have an inch over most of nj.   Bergen county gets 4 in both runs as well, DXR gets 4-8 between the two runs.   The main difference is that the most snow on the 0z falls in the berkshires, the 6z is the catskills.  6z has more snow for the middle of nj, all the way down to Jackson.  Snow could cause major issues in NJ and Southern CT.

Waves  -look to be 12-15 ft at the height.


11/3 - Internet service restored!  Classic noreaster forecast to hit now...

Morning runs of Euro and UKMET have 986ish low tucked into the coastline.  Hurricane strength winds over water and into LI at times.   Low stalls as well only moving from SNJ to LI in 24 hrs.  This is probably worst cast scenario.

0z gfs was off the coast, giving us snow actually. Weaker 996 low.   This is best case scenario, except for the fact that there are still leaves on trees and snow is going to be wet and heavy.  But it does spare the NJ coast the worst of the winds and keeps them in the N direction.
6z run puts a 980 low over benchmark.  This covers all of NJ with snow - probably the worst case scenario as most trees still have leaves.


12z gfs brings 982 low right up the slot, into Montauk, and Rhode Island.  This is bad for the coast, but should spare most of the immediately affected areas from heavy wet snow.  However gfs snow map shows even more snow, and this is now the worst case scenario.  Most of the coast sees 40-50kt winds, but out of the north to north east.  This should limit coastal flooding a bit.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Sandy

Sun night - wasn't able to post much, out prepping, soccer, etc.  No real changes from below, other than the winds below are slightly lower.  Flooding has already occurred  in NJ and DE.  Power is already out in long island.  Winds are fairly calm here after a blustery start at Kenosia park.

Low still coming in around Ocean Cty.  Surge should be really really really bad.  Upton is saying surge in NY will be recordbreaking.  Landfall 5-9pm on Monday.


Sat night
Euro is furthest south, well that and NHC having landfall say Seaside Heights.  Other models still targeting NYC/Sandy Hook.  Below is wind map from Euro85-90 gusts over LI, 75mph gusts inland.
Surge can go up to 9 feet, waves 12-18.  This should be treated as a cat one hurricane for most of the area, cat two along the coast due to possible record surges. 



Sat morning - Buoy 41010 had 30ft waves, gusts of hurricane force, winds of 60-65mph. Pressure 981, now rising.
Models narrowed from LI to Cape May (GFDL is delmarva).  Most hits are now Monday late afternoon to early tues morning, centered on Monday evening.

Euro hits Cape May, sub 950.  Winds similar to fridays runs.  Much less cold air, less snow in WV as well.  Ensembles mean  still north around Point Pleasant. Control is Seaside.
0z GFS hits NYC from the SW monday evening, moves west until stalling in western pa.Precip 3-4 inches generally, with 6-10 along the coast in DE/MD. Heavy snow in WV, with 3-4 inches in most of PA and 1-2 in western NJ.
6z - backs off snow in NJ, 1-2 in PA, less in WV too.  Sub 950 landfall around Monmouth cty. Sustained Winds still of hurricane strength hit LI only.  Rest of NE is +30kts at least, with higher gusts..  Ensembles are too vague and literally circle is around NJ. 
A note on winds - many models showing 95kt winds at 850 (110mph).  Standard ratio is .8 for surface winds, so the models are half of what normally happens.  This could be concerning.
CMC hits NYC, sub 950
UKMET hits LI and NJ Coast, sub 950
0z Nam hits sandyhook, sub 960
6z hits Sandy Hook, sub 960, from the SW though
Nogaps hits NYC from the SW

I like the models with the SW approach - its odd to see a storm take a 90 degree turn so fast, without stalling.  We're looking at landfall late monday, most likely along the NJ coast, sub 955.


Fri afternoon
GFS - 948 over ACK on 12ztues, 946 low at dxr at 18z.  Just wanders around, tries to go up hudson valley thursday, finally exits ME on friday. Precip up to 3 inches for most of CT, NYC and NNJ. Winds over 65kts at its peak at 12z tues along the north shore of MA and the Cape.  40kt+ from Canada to NC.  Inland winds not too bad - sustained at DXR of 40kts but only for under 12 hrs.  Aside from the high winds along the coast in MA/NH/ME, this is the safest solution so far.
UKMET - NJ hit tues morn - due west.  Looks like 950mb
NAM - East LI at hr 84, looks like a New Haven hit?
Euro -going in over ACU with 940 low at 12z on Tues.  Winds start 6z Sunday on LI, 12z for the coast from the Cape to OBX.  +70kt winds hit the cape 0z Tuesday, with inland winds picking up.6z Tuesday, winds are over 75kts from NH to MD, with NJ coast mercifully only at TS Strength. by 12z Tuesday, inland winds (not gusts) over 45kts or 55mph. NYC, NNJ, Monmouth cty, Nassau all over 75kts.  18z winds ease to 40kts over most of the NE, with 65kts on NC/VA coast.  Not until 6z Sat do the winds along the coast go below 45kts


Fri Morning

Euro 0z
940-945 landfall near MD/DE border at 18z Monday. Winds>65kts from ME to NC (whole NE screen) on coast with trop storm winds+higher gusts inland.  In DXR/NYC area gusts>25kts start Sunday afternoon, peak at 60kts Monday afternoon and subside below 25kts late Tuesday night. Sustained +30kt winds start Sunday evening, peak  monday afternoon, with NYC getting 75kt winds and DXR only 50kts. They subside by Tuesday afternoon.  Total precip ranges from 3 inches for Cape May to 2" for most of NJ and CT to 1.25 for LI.

GFS 0z
948 landfall on LI at about 20z Tuesday (4pm?).  Lt rain starts late Sunday afternoon,  storm stalls in NYC area, moves to Boston around 21z Wednesday at 970mb, heads north of VT by Fri morn when the last of the rain hits.  Truly crazy run.  Even with all that rain, only 2.5 inches for CT with 3-5 in NJ.  Sustained winds of +30 kts start along the NJ shore Mon 6z and back off a bit.  East LI, ACK and CC starts at 18z Monday. By 0z Tuesday, the coast from Cape Ann to OBX is sustaining trop force winds.  12z Tuesday, 25kt winds are in DXR/NYC but CC/ACK getting hit with 60kts. By 18z, DXR and NYC are suffering sustained winds >30kts with LI and CC at 50+.Winds ease inland by 6z Wed, coastal areas still >40kts.  Thurs 6z winds along coast subside.

Euro Ens - place storm in NJ at 6z Tues.
GFS 0z ens - 970 low over NYC at 18z Tues.  Then stalls for a day and moves to VT by 18z Wed.
CMC - loops into ME Wed 6z with 951mb
DGEX hits NYC at 958 mb early Monday evening .  Then stalls in PA.  2-3 inches of rain.  Winds 65kts on Cape cod, inland well over 40kts.  But only lasts 12 hrs then subsides.
0z NAM puts a pancake low of 976 s of RI at hr 84.  Winds only 50kts top
6z nam has normal low of 960 of S of LI at hr 84 (mon 18z). Winds still not over 55kts anywhere.
6z GFS run has it hitting NYC dead on with 952 low 18z tues.  Then moving to PHL6z wed. Then back to NYC 18z wed. Over Keene NH on 18z Thurs, ME on Fri.
Nogaps into NJ with 962 low early monday afternoon.  Winds dont exceed 30kts except at coast and interior SNJ.
UKMET comes in somewhere between 952 and 970 around NYC tues afternoon.





Thurs Evening

All models, including HWRF show a threat to the EC.  Range is being narrowed with GFS hitting in NYC area, Euro on Delmarva.

18z GFS winds arrive 0z Tues and max out at 12z Tues for DXR area, with 70mph winds hitting LI.  Eye goes in near Asbury Park - remarkably, winds not that bad.
12z Euro winds start 18z Sunday, in coastal areas, max out at hurricane force 0z Tues, from ME to VA.  Go back below trop force by 18z tuesday.  So two days of +30kt winds for most of the Northeast, even inland.  The center goes in near DE/MD border, winds at Cape May are off scale at +75kts (85-90mph).  Euro is furthest south, for now.  Its ensembles have storm hitting closer to Toms River on Tuesday 12z.
JMA brings straight on hit to NJ.
Canadian hits NYC with 942 low.  850 winds at 90kts
UKMET hits LI
GFDL takes 70kts into Chesapeake at 930 mb on 18z monday.  Its winds not as widespread, but hard to tell. Look like only trop force winds up to s jersey.
HWRF changed late to an ots solution, again.
Nam, extrapolated looks like a NYC hit, as is DGEX, on Monday Morning. Winds of 60kts. 965 low. DGEX no longer has snow down into SC coast!

So the questions tonite - does it arrive Sunday night or Monday night?  Does it stall or keep moving?  Do the models keep pushing this further southwest and turn it into a NC/SC hit?  Does Sandy maintain strength at 105kts?  Lots of time for things to change, but it would be odd if this didn't hit the EC somewhere at his point.

BTW - no generators to be found.

I haven't mentioned precip yet - most models are capping it at 5", so who knows.  Typically the higher winds are on the E side of the low and the higher precip on the W side. 







Wed Evening
A day of back and forth.  Nogaps and Euro still steady with landfall between De and ME.  GFS 12z had landfall around Boston.  GFDL moved back to an offshore solution to hr 126, but could be retrograding afterward.  UKMET looks like it is similar to 12z gfs, out at sea and retrograding back, but only goes to 144.  CMC is back on board as well with a Boston hit.  JMA maintains an EC hit as well. The 18z GFS went back well east, but retrograded into Newfoundland.  So all but the HWrf are looking like a hit on land, just a manner of how, where and when.  I'm not even sure I'd rule out OBX yet.  DGEX is on board with hit on NYC at 964mb.  This actually seems reasonable!  But then again it has snow to the coast in North Carolina...

Wed Morn
Switching to new post as the charts below are picking up on a hurricane landfall.
First is the spread of hurricane models, not too many out to sea solutions left.  I don't buy the gdl southern solution just yet, particularly since the euro is taking this into NJ.  I wouldn't rule out a hit in the OBX either, but think ACY to BOS is the area looking most favorable, with BOS to Canada possilbly next if the storm isn't captured quickly enough by the trough (gfs solution).  GFS also has a non tropical storm forming over the NE Tues-Thurs, which looks formidable, and may even result in snow for the area.
 Second, pressure of 932 over DE, per latest gfdl run
 Last, 100kt winds near chesapeake bay at hr 114, they lower to 90 kts (105mph) upon landfall.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Models go crazy - October surprise, again.

10/23 morning update. Some mets catching on last night.
Gfs ens starting to shift to euro solution. Euro, cmc, no gaps, jam still make us landfall.  Jam is south of no, while the others center around NYC to southern new England.  Gfs is further west, showing the storm meandering between Bermuda and the US. Pressure on this mornings runs are still close to 930 on the euro and cmc.  Winds and precip did not match the intensity of the 12z euro yesterday as a 930 low would have winds over 65.

These have to be overblown on the pressure. I can see how baroclinic factors affect Sandy and make it explode, but let's see how strong she is and how close to Florida she gets before making prep.


10/22
Just randomly checked the models this morning to find that the Euro had a huge storm affecting the midatlantic and southern new england.  Tropical Storm comes out of Cuba, stalls in bahamas for a day, then gets trapped by an upper low over the CONUS.  As the baroclinic forces hit the storm it drops to 952 low off of AC and moves into PA.  Track is supported by the JMA, CMC and partially by the UK models, although timing varies.  EURO Ensembles are conflicting, with some of the storm being split out to sea and some remaining to affect the US.  Its wind field and 500 heights are in line with the operational model, but the slp map is way different.  GFS has the trop storm going way out to sea, but the upper low spawning another coastal which affects New England.  Euro maps show hurricane strength winds hitting from NJ to CT.   This would be devastating to NJ in particular.  On top of that, the 850 temps are below 0 - but the leftover tropical airmass at the surface should prevent any snow until western pa.

Euro surface

Euro winds

Euro 850 temps

CMC

JMA surface

GFS 6z map