Negative tilted trough, storm out to sea?

10-2

NAM, Canadian, and NAVGEM are only operational models left with a US coastal hit.  Some hurricane ensemble members do as well, but they are in the minority.  So whats left to do but watch.  Some interesting features - there is a ULL in the Atlantic heading towards HJ, and an ULL over the SE heading to HJ.  There is also a negatively tilted trough at 250,300 and 500mb.  ULL lows at 850 and 750 have merged with HJ.  All of this, and it still goes out to sea.  

In the gif below, you can see the two upper level lows (swirls in orange/black)  mentioned above, you can see the water vapor stripping off HJ into the front/trough (that I thought would influence HJ).  You'd think that the two ULLs would either push the storm south, or squeeze it north along the jetstream and front.

Below are the winds at 300mb, which would steer the storm.  Black lines indicate direction of wind, red line is forecast track.  Makes no sense.  You'd think it would go north.

Can the Euro snatch victory and save us all?

4:30  Euro holds out to sea again. GFS 6 and 12z agree.  UKMET hits Bermuda.  HWRF sends it out to sea.  GFDL, CMC, hurricane models and now the NAM are closer or hitting the east coast.   I still think a fast exit to the ENE from the Bahamas is odd - nothing really acting on the storm.  GFS is closer to my thinking, which means NYC-Cape should still watch this.  It would be horrible if the Euro changed its mind now! 
 

7:30 Monday's 12z run the Euro had the solution most models came to later yesterday - upper low snags Joaquin and it makes a hard left turn into the Carolinas.  Then Tuesday morning's run, Joaquin just headed towards Bermuda, only to move back to a position between Bermuda and the Cape on Wednesday.  No credit for strength, as it did predict 970 lows, it didn't get it into the 930's where it is (unofficially at this time) now.

Up until last night, every ( I mean every) other model had a US landfall, mostly between NC and NJ.  That is until the 0z GFS which shifted to the east/north to a NYC area landfall.  6z run of the GFS completely misses the US, might hit Canada.  UKMET also moved to a near Cape Cod solution on its 0z run. 

So we will see the forecasters likely shift the path east (already did somewhat this morning) as the trends are starting.  However, given the amount of time (now landfall on Monday/Tuesday) and that the deterministic models still aren't initializing and capturing the strength, plus some discrepancies in the upper levels and lastly, possible interaction with Ida, its hard to say we're past this one.  Still keep an eye on it.

Hurricane Joaquin

9-30 pm update.  Not too much change today, just a small shift west/south. Euro still showing it going out to sea.  GFDL still looks really bad, 939 mb with 130mph winds at landfall in NC.  Most models are focused on Outer Banks to Chesapeake now, with a few still showing NJ in the mix for a landfall.  What happens after landfall will need to be discussed at some point - models are all over on that one too.  My concern about the models is that none of them forecast a 105mph nearly cat 3 storm this early.  Typically you see stronger storms start to head north - Euro had kept it weaker, driving it further SW and slowing it so that it wasn't as influenced by the upper level low (ULL) over GA.  Its obviously way stronger than modeled, even at 12z today, but it hasn't affected any forecast yet.  Joaquin at this strength is still moving SW, which is odd for its strength but there are 200-300mb winds out of the NE which could be causing that (although it also could be outflow, and venting the system), but they aren't that strong.

18z GFDL

9-30  Euro did not change its mind, too much.  Just moved 150 miles or so to the west.  It remains the only model with no US landfall

6z GFDL currently leads in the worst case scenario with a westward moving storm with 120mph sustained winds just to the south of Chesapeake bay, which will already be backed up due to an easterly fetch. 

6z HWRF is only a little less concerning with a 945 low hitting the Outer Banks. Only 105mph winds




6z GFS very similar to HWRF (not usual) with 975 low hitting same area.  Tidbits has the winds at 100mph on its graphic.  0z is a little further north, same strength.







 CMC goes 972mb low into the DelMarVa.
UKMET targets NJ
 

Overall spread of runs clearly in favor of a landfall

Joaquin and the weekend

9/29 - Its going to rain finally....

First, today its in the 80's again. 25th day in the 80's in NY in Sept, 25th day above normal here.  Hasn't rained yet either.  The air is soupy and some tstorms are coming in from the south.  Not sure the heaviest of rain will hit here with the frontal system, may just go to our NW.

Joaquin is slow.  Since it is a day slower now, the track is differing. There is no lock on the track.  If it continues slow and weak, it may miss the upper low completely as well as any trough. 

Euro yesterday drove it to the Bahamas as a 993 low on Friday, and then got sucked into the upper low over the SE, driving it it into the Chesapeake.  Today, it goes SW into the Bahamas on Thurs, stays on Friday deepening to 956mb and moves slowly NE at 951mb on Saturday.  The upper low repels it rather than attracts it and it heads out to sea.  Now the morning run had the upper low spawn a noreaster that would bring us a ton of rain and wind anyway, but that feature goes pretty far out to sea off NC.  Trending East.  Update - the Euro ensembles at 12z and the control show more of a landfall in NC

Euro Enscontrol

GEM aka Canadian has it just to the east of the Bahamas on thurs and friday, down to 973mb. But instead of moving out to sea, it moves north (as it probably should) and then gets sucked in by the upper low over the SE.  Slams into Cape May Sunday from the SE as a 965 low, then follows the coast  as it converts to extratropical and goes through SNE on Tues morn.  That means a lot of rain.  Crazy enough, the early run of the GEM had another TS form and pivot around Joaquin with the combined storm grazing the Cape.

GGEM

GFS - 0z run took a weak storm up the coast into NJ from the SSE.  6z develops a noreaster out of the upper low as it moves NE, repelling Joaquin similar to the Euro.  12z run has Joaquin shed some energy, develop a new low over NC.  Oddly, the new low moves NW into OH and Joaquin moves SE away from us.  Trend is east with Joaquin. (updated)   Until.... the 18z run comes in with an intensifying storm down to 975 in the Chesapeake coming in from the SE

HWRF 12z run keeps it hitting the mid atlantic/Chesapeake at 942mb, long range hurricane models are everywhere and gfdl is out to sea.  6z run loops it around the upper low and swings it into RI/CT from the SW.  0z smacked NYC from the SW.   So it moved left, right, left.

GFDL takes it NE to just W of Bermuda, then hooks it to the NW.  What you can't see on the map below is there is a huge high pressure causing this.  If that remains, then the storm may make it all the way back.  Update:  18z brings a 952 low into Long Island Sun nite

GFDL last frame  with big ridge blocking to the NE and storm heading NW

GFDL 18z run, back west again

Model spread

Hurricane Center splitting the difference

UKMET for kicks

Trop storm threat late sept, early oct

9-25  Persistent Highs moving off NE and blocking make any energy going off the SE coast something to watch. Example is TS forming off SE Coast and hitting Delaware Bay on Oct 4.  This is only one run, but there were forecasts for today to have a similar feature.  The pattern is right for something to develop.  Meanwhile moderate drought conditions persist in the NYC metro.

9/28  Came home to find the locals warning of a tropical storm to hit us late in the week.
12z euro bullish on a Chesapeake hit. Maybe 978 low? 0z had week LP 1008 hitting LI/SNE with another threat brushing cape cod later in the period.

12z euro

0z euro

12z gfs similar to 0z euro

GFDL makes me sick.

As does the hwrf

Here are the tracks

CMC keeps it going north along 70w.
Euro ens are close, gfs ens keep it out.
Lots of time to change.

June 1st... what a day

6-2   Cold front stalled to our south yesterday bringing waves of precip up and keeping temps around 50.  WFSB reported it was the coolest daytime high on record for this day.  Meanwhile in Atlantic City it was a balmy 82 degrees.   While that temperature contrast is impressive, rainfall totals were even more impressive here in Danbury.  For the day, we received 3.2 inches of rain.  But in the course of the hour between 3:30 and 4:30 we received over 2 inches.   All runoff areas flooded, the gutters on my house couldn't get rid of the water fast enough and over flowed all along the roof line.  My back patio looked like a pond.  Meanwhile I couldn't find any airport totals even close
Bridgeport reported .57"
Poughkepsie .61
Bradley 1.52
New Haven, .27
White Plains, .93.  
Oxford, .8

And its still raining and 47 degrees out today. 

The end...

The never ending winter going out with a few flurries yesterday and today, remarkably in the middle of the day.  Just briefly, but yesterday at 45 degrees, today at 39.  Euro control has last gasp on May 2 when the last of the blocking kicks down an upper level low over us, with thickness lines south of the area.  Nothing much, just a possible sprinkle, flurry.  The euro operational has a few close calls with nor'easters up until that point.  0z GFS also has this blocking and upper feature.  It keeps us near the 540 thickness line until May 5th.  6z keeps us cool until May 9th.

0z gfs

6z gfs