Waiting..

12/19  We did have some snow flurries today....

12/14 - Euro again getting close, gfs not there.

12/11 - 0z euro coming close on the 19th.

So is GFS... 6z at least

12/5  0z GFS has some more stronger storms for the 17th and 19th. But sadly rain at this point.  Euro Control completely different picture.  6z GFS has them going to our west and very warm. 

12-17 0z gfs

12/19 0z gfs

12/4 - its been since the below run on 11/26 that a snow storm has shown up.  This one one the 6z gfs.  Hr 348, so its just eye candy for now, and not even much at that since temps are marginal.  The GFS at least is putting a mean trough in the CONUS, but mainly to our west.  Euro control less interesting.  Still the next 10 days should be warmer than normal and dry.


Storms are showing up on model runs, but there is no consistency between models, nor from one model run to the next.  Dec 2 (Euro ens) and Dec 8(12z GFS) are todays examples of that.

12z GFS for 12/8

0z Euro ens control for 12-2

This winter looks like...

11/20   ...a little warmer in the beginning, less snow with colder more normal temps in Feb/Mar and more snow.  Not expecting many 6+ storms, but we could get half the seasonal snow with one hit in Feb/Mar. Overall I'm thinking +.2 to .5 for temps and within 5" of normal for snow.

Based on looking at various outlooks by various weather agencies and other forecasters, my prediction is for a winter which will not be nearly as cold as the last few, closer to normal temps and slightly less than normal snow with a few ice storms.  Aside from reading a dozen or so other forecasts, you can't ignore the El Nino, which is by many accounts the second strongest since 1950, and even stronger in some regions than 1997. 

Another look at 3.4

From LA Times, Region 3.4

1997/98 was a very warm and snowless winter (5" in Central Park).  There are mets out there who will point out this is not a 1997 El Nino (the strongest), but you can't discount it as a whole.  Approx 3/4 of the "mets" I follow are calling for a warm start, cold end.  The other 1/4 are calling for persistent warmth. Why I buy the majority argument is that El Nino is forecast to crash pretty hard in the spring.  As the Pacific shifts towards neutral, the jet should change and shift back to a more normal look.  The key is how fast El Nino tops off (is it now?) and how fast it declines.

Predicted fall to neutral by summer

It could delay or peak a month late, which messes up just about everyones outlook. Both Atlantic and Pacific temps are warmer than normal, with the Atlantic looking like its transitioning out of a +AMO.  Warmer ocean temps lead to more moisture, so when winter pokes back at us, we are looking at a stronger subtropical jet and warmer Atlantic (for now) which would lead to stronger storms, heavier precip.  Hence the call for some potent storms later in the year.  The track of these storms would have to be worked out later though and its more likely than not they head to our west, resulting in either ice storms or front end snow, rain events.  Current storms are tracking to the lakes, which I expect to continue through December, but after that can't tell. 

Atlantic Temps = more moisture available

Pacific Temps = stronger storms in ST Jet

I'm also researching warm ocean temps and falling or rising heights and pressures as a result.  I would expect that as the difference in land v. sea temps expands, the affects of a warmer ocean increase.  If you're at the shore, particularly in the spring, you'll notice as the land warms, the rising air draws in the cooler ocean air creating a sea breeze.  The warmth draws in cold to replace it.  At night, the warmer ocean then draws in the air from the land, but its usually not as strong as the temp difference is less.  So does having near coastal water +2 to +3 warmer than normal cause air to be drawn to it from the cooler land.  Just a thought.

 Should throw in as a final point, that the latest (11/20) CFSv2 run for 850 temp anomalies as warmer in Jan, colder in Feb and Mar.  Not sure how I feel about that.

Feb 850 temp anomalies

March 850 temp anomalies

Opening day

11-22  Close, so close.  NMM had some snow forecast for Eastern CT.  But raw, cloudy and cold instead.  Nothing to blog about in the next ten days.

11/20 - close, but not seeing signs of it shifting back west. Less amped.  Wondering if this is a sign for the winter.

 

11/17 First threat of a snow storm for the NE this season showing on the Euro this morning, but keeps the accumulating snow to our N and W.  While the 1000-500 thickness looks good (see blue line on MSLP chart), the surface and 925mb temps are too warm for our area.  850's support snow, so there may be some in the air, particularly in heavier bursts, but otherwise should be liquid and non accumulating.  GFS has some snow as well on the 6z run, but its weaker overall with the secondary development shown on the Euro. CMC has a dry front come through.

Halloween - always interesting.

10/27 - No major issues, but some wind and rain heading in Wed nite.
Here are the gusts from this mornings Euro.  Rain amts 1.-2". 2-2.5 on gfs.  GFS has gusts over 40mph for Interior sections, higher along the coast. Same with NAM. 

10/25  Euro and GFS show Pat redeveloping and hitting LA.  The GFS takes the moisture further east into our area for a soaking rain on Wed Nite.  Euro takes the bulk of the rain to our east.  The GFS shows a trough and snow in our area on the 30th (snow shower type, mood snow) while Euro doesn't.  Both have nice Halloween day.

10/23
 Euro shows frontal passage (fropa) on the 25th.  Then we need to watch what happens with the remnants of Patricia.  Some indication that some of the precip will make it up here on Thursday.  Euro has the remnants reform into a LP along the TX/LA coast and linger.  Then by Wed/Thurs get swept into a front. Interestingly, it also has a little noreaster developing as an upper low (UL) comes around.

Canadian looks similar to Euro, but brings LP further west. Spares us storminess, still good rain though.
0z Gfs doesn't develop the remnants as much, keeps the low onshore, and brings it up on Wednesday, again to our west, over Chicago.  It has a noreaster hitting us on the 3rd as a system again emerges from the gulf.



10/21

This mornings Euro was more benign - just a front coming through on the 29th and a brief cool shot.   Should be noted that TX area gets 6-12 inches of rain.
This afternoons Euro was more interesting - tropical storm hitting the TX/LA coast and moving north to the Lakes, with an upper low sliding in under it and the whole mess pushing through the NE on the 29th/30th.

The 0z GFS had the front come through dry on the 29th, but left the Gulf open for some development.  Tropical moisture streams northward on the 30-31-1 period, but nothing too organized.
12z run has nothing of note - normal frontal passages, nothing tropical.

0z CMC runs a deep low over the lakes, up to our west.  So does the 12z which results in chilly Halloween.

10/20  Since 2011, I've been keeping an eye on the last week or two of Oct for some interesting weather.  Low and behold, the models now go out to Halloween and there is some interesting features. 

Todays 0z GFS run has a hybrid tropical system heading up the coast and hitting us on the 30th.  Lot of rain, not too much wind.

The Euro has us setting up for a cold blast, deep trough.  It doesn't take much for that to close off  or go more negative and the storm/moisture offshore to come back in.  Need to watch this.

Case in point, the Euro ensemble control, which forms a noreaster, brings it back, but doesn't close off all the way and it gets pushed back out before hitting us.

FWIW - Canadian has a LP running from the Gulf up the OH valley, over us.  At the same time cold air presses down.  Should be serious snow in Northern NY,VT, NH with back end elsewhere. Bottom right box is the 0c line at 850mb (5,000 feet approx.)

So no consensus for now -but some interesting items to watch for the end of the month.

12z update Euro closes off low, but timing is a bit later and further west.  Still heavy rain, then upper low would go through with some snow.  GFS has a weaker miller A type storm forming over the SE and moving up the coast. 12z CMC has a storm moving up the Apps, with bombing out over us to 987mb and snow in the ADKs, Green and White mts.

First snow

10-18  Had our first freeze overnight, first frost yesterday (10/17) morning and first snow around noon today.  Snow showers on and off so far from 12-2.  Looking forward to the mid week warmup.  Keep eye on gulf of mexico late in the week.

Negative tilted trough, storm out to sea?

10-2

NAM, Canadian, and NAVGEM are only operational models left with a US coastal hit.  Some hurricane ensemble members do as well, but they are in the minority.  So whats left to do but watch.  Some interesting features - there is a ULL in the Atlantic heading towards HJ, and an ULL over the SE heading to HJ.  There is also a negatively tilted trough at 250,300 and 500mb.  ULL lows at 850 and 750 have merged with HJ.  All of this, and it still goes out to sea.  

In the gif below, you can see the two upper level lows (swirls in orange/black)  mentioned above, you can see the water vapor stripping off HJ into the front/trough (that I thought would influence HJ).  You'd think that the two ULLs would either push the storm south, or squeeze it north along the jetstream and front.

Below are the winds at 300mb, which would steer the storm.  Black lines indicate direction of wind, red line is forecast track.  Makes no sense.  You'd think it would go north.

Can the Euro snatch victory and save us all?

4:30  Euro holds out to sea again. GFS 6 and 12z agree.  UKMET hits Bermuda.  HWRF sends it out to sea.  GFDL, CMC, hurricane models and now the NAM are closer or hitting the east coast.   I still think a fast exit to the ENE from the Bahamas is odd - nothing really acting on the storm.  GFS is closer to my thinking, which means NYC-Cape should still watch this.  It would be horrible if the Euro changed its mind now! 
 

7:30 Monday's 12z run the Euro had the solution most models came to later yesterday - upper low snags Joaquin and it makes a hard left turn into the Carolinas.  Then Tuesday morning's run, Joaquin just headed towards Bermuda, only to move back to a position between Bermuda and the Cape on Wednesday.  No credit for strength, as it did predict 970 lows, it didn't get it into the 930's where it is (unofficially at this time) now.

Up until last night, every ( I mean every) other model had a US landfall, mostly between NC and NJ.  That is until the 0z GFS which shifted to the east/north to a NYC area landfall.  6z run of the GFS completely misses the US, might hit Canada.  UKMET also moved to a near Cape Cod solution on its 0z run. 

So we will see the forecasters likely shift the path east (already did somewhat this morning) as the trends are starting.  However, given the amount of time (now landfall on Monday/Tuesday) and that the deterministic models still aren't initializing and capturing the strength, plus some discrepancies in the upper levels and lastly, possible interaction with Ida, its hard to say we're past this one.  Still keep an eye on it.