Saturday, December 31, 2011
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 60
TOTAL PRECIP 5.24
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 13
TOTAL SNOWFALL trace
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 37.1 DEPARTURE FROM NORM +4.9
NORMAL PRECIP 4.16 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 126
Today its in the low fifties, so another +15 degree departure will likely bring this to +5
December 2006 also had +4.9 deviation, and .1 inches of snow. Jan 2007 had temps +4.2 and 1.4 inches of snow, also had a high of 70 on the sixth, but things change mid month when the low of 2 occurred. Feburary following was brutally cold at -7.8, but it was dry with only 40% of precip, 8 inches of snow. March remained cold at -3.7 with 12 inches of snow and normal precip.
So things can change!
Friday, December 23, 2011
Its 53 and pouring out at 8:30pm. Looking beyond New Years eve on the models is pointless. GFS shows a nice trough building in the east. Euro shows the trough dipping in and moving out with return of warmth. CMC looks more like the Euro, with positive tilting trough and on the 4th a noreaster develops, very close to a major snow event. GFS, CMC and Euro below. While the EUro and CMC have a good positioned high, they do not have anything blocking the system, so it doesn't make sense that the storm would remain there for so long and cut off.
But for New Years eve, they all have a clipper coming through, but just light snow, or snow showers, if anything.
Euro still takes 27/28 storm inland, as does cmc, both show clipper in for light snow around New Years eve. GFS is also inland for the 27/28, but shows a warmer event for New Years. All runs are minor right now for any precip.
12z runs in so far still run inland, with nam starting to show weak clipper for friday with another right behind it. GFS still runs the New Years storm well to our north and while a bit colder, now has no precip with it.
Longer term - Northern jet seems to be starting to take over and get more into the US, so perhaps we will flip in next two weeks.
12-24 - 27-28 storm now looking inland, but euro did bomb out right over us on the 12z run. GFS and nam are weaker, bringing close to us but with too much warm air.
Still no change in nao/ao, but with a positive pna, maybe some cold air. There is a hint of a storm on the 27th-28th, but its just a hint. Current position is off the coast, but these do trend west over time. Only the CMC and GFS has this so far.
Long range models do show cold air in the second week, but thats nothing new.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
12-22 - So close...
Almost all models have the 850 line splitting CT, with the NAM still south of CT, but moving north each run. However, the temp profile is not favorable for snow, unless it comes down real hard and draws colder air to the surface. Any precip in the late morn may end as wet snow. So while a sloppy morning commute would not surprise me, it is unlikely. GFS and NAM still have snow on their maps too. 12z Euro now much warmer, has .5" of all rain with 850 at 1c.
Yet the 18z nam comes in even warmer, with very little snow for us, if any. Plus its really warm out, and the system is juicy and I think heading further west than progged. Oh well. Not much support anymore from the models for accumulating snow, just some wet flakes or flurries afterwards. Might as well keep it warm.
12-21 - with all the focus on sunday's event, friday's event is sneaking up and getting colder each day. All models have some precip falling on friday. So lets look at r/s lines. 540 thicknesses are all north, due to the ground level being warmer. This means either rain, mix, or non accumulating wet snow. Freezing line at 850mb (5,000 ft) looks like the following
Euro - right around I84, clipping sussex county, nj (dxr is actually .1 and 0 for this time frame) - meaning rain for dxr. This is a warmer solution from previous run. Euro ensembles are much colder and give us a good snow storm 3-6 inches, if it doesn't melt.
NAM - 0z has 850 line south of CT, about I80 through nj.
NAM - 6z -colder with line south of LI, Sandy Hook, to Trenton
GFS - 0z - north of CT, doesn't move south until the early afternoon, which is after the precip ends. Ensembles have a rain to snow event, not likely any accum
GFS - 6z, colder with line now about I84, clipping sussex county. Very much like 0z euro Ensembles have a good snow storm. 4"?
JMA - only resolves in 24 hrs, but looks to be warm for the period, with the line crossing south of dxr around 6am. could turn to snow.
CMC - line splits CT in half, gradually lowers through the event, mostly rain though.
SREF is bullish on snow for CT, sussex cty.
12z Nam colder with mostly snow now, although no accumulation other than a dusting per its map.
12z GFS - colder, 1-2 inches on its snow map, still starts mix goes to snow, but not too far off from 6z
CMC - line still splits ct, but still mostly rain
18z NAM -all snow 1-3
18z GFS - low comes out Del Bay and S of LI. 850 line still in CT, not far enough s for snow until near the end of the event. .75 qpf forecast. GFS snowmap has several inches, but ground temps are in the mid-upper 30s.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
12-23 - towel is being thrown in. Nothing on any model anywhere, but east of BM. JB insists it will happen. Might be the only one.
18z gfs run
12-22 Yesterdays afternoon runs were a let down. Nothing was showing anywhere, with the Euro - the king - only blowing a storm up well off the coast. Usually storms move further nw with time, until inside 48 hrs, and even then the models can be off by 100 miles. So, with just the sliver of hope, I continue to check.
0z Euro - develops low off NC, phases east of BM, but not by much. No effect
12z Euro - no real shift on the 24 hr - will wait for Accuweather to see what happens in the middle.
0z gfs - sends wave off NC, has Northern Low go through MAine. Nothing.
6z gfs - same as 0z, with southern wave reaching northern low just offshore of Nova Scotia
12z - 0z26th northern low through lakes and ny, southern low off nc, instead of going east or ene, the low heads nne, meets the northern at the BM, snow in Cape Cod
0z UKMET - nothing
12z run - only up to 72 hrs so far, but showing that the n branch dipping down now instead of zonal. hmm
0z CMC - develops weak system east of the benchmark
12z System now develops over BM, with snow brushing Cape Cod, and flurries in SNE
JMA - takes southern stream, develops off NC and goes east of BM. Just noticed it has snow for us for the 22nd.
18z GFS shows SE CT getting brushed by some snow early mon morning. Typically this would shift back a bit further nw. However, with no other model support, or support from its ensembles, its tough to think this will affect the area. But it still is a sliver of hope.
12-21 Chaos continues, Euro backs down a little, attention turns to Friday for any hope of white christmas
0z Euro has a wave now going off the coast of NJ, little or no impact for our area. Upper air looks less amplified than in previous runs, thus pushing out to sea rather than up coast.
0z GFS has nada - actually pushing a warm front with no precip in site
6z GFS - actually has a storm, is more amplified than any past 6-8 runs, and is similar to Euro. Brings low off NC. Is this the solution?
UKMET - nada
JMA - similar to Euro
Nogaps - nada
Dgex - now has storm, but moves it due east off SC
CMC pops storm on Monday, but off the coast
GFS -precip gets to delmarva, but bulk goes ene ots, ensembles have no precip at all
CMC - has no precip, until storm forms off coast on monday
Euro - wave goes off NC, meets N Stream wave east of BM and bombs out, nada
Now these could come back, but not looking likely.
12-20 Models waffling, Euro remains steadiest.
0z Euro delays storm until Sun afternoon. 850 line just reaches us, but not before .4" of precip (4-6 inches) falls. Ground temps are still too high too. 1012 off NC/VA at 18z, 0z 60-100 miles east of CM, 6z 100mb over MVY.
0z GFS tries to double barrel low up the apps, transfers off coast to 1004 low over MVY by 12zSun. 0 line at CT/MA border. mostly rain, with some mix to start. Cold front really doesnt make it through.
6z gfs - pushes front through, never develops storm, keeps wave precip well to our south and east.
oz Euro ensembles are faster than the operational and take storm from 1004 of ACY at 18zsun to Boston at 996 by 0z. But at the height (18z) the 0/850 line is near I 80. By that time, there is already .5-.75 qpf fallen.
6z DGEX - nothing. Kinda opposite of yesterday
0z CMC - nothing develops, wave passes just south with flurries in our area
JMA goes east of BM
GFS Ens have snow on Friday, but nothing after until maybe monday.
UKMET has low coming through TN valley, likely rain, but it has something.
Afternoon update: waffling continues
12z Euro - stays steady, although a bit slower, weaker and just a tad nw of the 0z. Printout shows .55 of precip falling with 850 temps below 0, but then they rise barely above. So some snow, perhaps a warm dryslot after. Starting in the early afternoon, heaviest at night.
12z GFS - nada
12z CMC - runs inland, but still east of the apps. Snow to rain, also has it starting 0z Monday.
12z UKMET - loses the L, but still has a wave nearby.
18z gfs - nada, not even a wave.
I am wondering why the GFS breaks down the SE ridge.
12-19 Euro - snow Christmas eve overnight into Christmas Day. Relies on weak southern storm and bombs storm off ACY to ACK from 1004 to 996. GFS, also has snow, but lighter (1-3") and more marginal. CMC puts storm on Christmas night into monday, drags storm west of apps, but does hit us with front band of snow on Christmas night. UKMET at 144 (Christmas eve) shows nothing, nogaps shows nothing. 6z gfs has northern stream snow Christmas eve night, with weaker southern system, thus warming up to rain. 6z DGEX has all out snow storm Christmas Eve night, very similar to Euro except colder. Afternoon update: 12z GFS keeps one storm north, the other south, the one in the north stronger, so warm air comes up for rain. The 12z CMC, instead of west of Apps, is now out to sea.
12-17 cmc big storm to lakes. Gfs does a coastal on the 24th, but keeps it too warm. Euro keeps storm in n branch on the 24th and passes it to our north, keeps it weak and warm. Euro and gfs show flurries possible afterwards. More later maybe. Interesting that the 12z gfs suppresses the system completely on the 24th after the 22 ne storm goes to our south with rain. Euro takes the first one to the lakes, and never develops more than a wave, which also goes south of us on the 23rd.
12-16 - sensing a storm on Christmas Eve/Day
0z Euro shifts the 12/22 storm over us, with the 850 and 540 line now remains in New England,but as the storm pulls out of NE, a high follows in from the SOUTHWEST! So it warms up, cold front approaches the 24th, stalls. Weak storm develops and slides southeast of NJ, so there is a chance of flurries, at first, but 850 line is north of CT for most of what little precip falls. Climatologically, this makes no sense. End of december storms passing south of us are usually snow or no.
GFS - 0z doesnt really generate a storm, on the 22nd. A weak distrubance through the lakes, keeps it warm. Then a sw in north and south phase right over us on the 24th, but the 850 line is in VT for the bulk of the precip, again, NY and PA could get good snow.
6z develops the 22nd as a clipper, but a little too late. As the Euro, the storm is further south as is the 850 line, but still not south enough to snow here. Front stalls on the 24th, but no storm forms.
12z 22nd storm never forms, sw does push over our area bringing flurries or sprinkles. Front stalls on the 23rd and develops a weak storm which pushes off se of the area. 850 line is through MA, Catskills, Poconos for most of the event, although if the moisture can get in fast enough there could be some front end snow.
Crazy Canadian pushes the 22nd storm over Buffalo, stalls the front (like the euro) develops a storm along the front (weak at first, 996 over NH)). Storm goes from OBX, to RI/MA, NH, ME. So north, which is odd. West PA and NY would see snow, rest maybe some mixed or starting as snow, but a decent rain storm.
12-14 - 240 hrs now showing on Euro and CMC.
Euro has a strong low over Toronto, supporting my assertion that we will have a tornado watch around Christmas. (such assertion being tongue in cheek after Halloween was cancelled due to snow)
CMC has weak coastal storm (1010) right off the coast. 0 line at 850 along I95 and would mean snow.
0z GFS has a weak low coming out of the OH Valley on the 22nd, going too close to us for snow
6z has frontal passage on the 24th, maybe showers or a flurry
12-15 Still nothing exciting - Crazy Canadian has a storm, but no support elswhere or in the pattern
Euro has frontal passage, dry, on the 20th and a 1000mb low S of Long Island on the 22nd. This would normally be a snow event, but the 540 line is in Canada. Front pushes back through on the 24th with flurries and rain/snow showers.
GFS has fropa on the 20th, but the next storm is poorly organized and is split with one part over the lakes and another coming through the TN valley. It eventually forms a 1008 low off Cape Cod on the 22nd, but it too has the 540 line in Canada. Front passes through the 24th, dry.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
GFS runs have warmed for any storms between now and then and flow continues mostly from the sw with a brief cold shot every 4-5 days or so. Euro lost the look that had me excited where the northern and southern were looking like they would phase over VA around the 24th. Now they remain separate as the timing is off. But there could be a clipper heading down on the 23rd. CMC has similar look to Euro, although it keeps us closer to normal with temps and the flow of systems is more out of the NW than SW as the GFS has. It too looks like a clipper could hit prior to the holidays.
12-10 - nothing but storms to the Great Lakes for the Euro
GFS 0z had nothing but rain, cutters and fronts. Christmas beautiful near 50.
6z was interesting with close calls on the 19th, 20th, 21st
12z had only a storm possibly on the 24th (see below)
CMC just like Euro, only cutters with chances of rain.
Can't even get it cold enough to get some overrunning with the warm fronts!
Monday, December 5, 2011
12-6 Models all shifted N and W with the low coming over NYC. All are within the BM which given that its 61 right now, isn't likely producing major snow. There will be some, but I can't tell how much as the low is at NYC and 6 hrs later is on the ME/CAN border. Cold air will come in, and there is a half inch of precip falling between 42 and 48 hrs, but no idea if all of it falls prior to the cold, or if all of it falls while its cold. Also suspect is the amount for that time frame, given the position and speed of the storm. 1-3 or would be my best guess, but that may be a little aggressive. Even with the speed of the system, noting that the GFS and NAM each put well over 1.5 qpf down. Seems like a lot, but then again its pretty juicy outside.
DANBURY -- In 2011, Connecticut did not get a plague of locusts or a rain of toads. Lions did not whelp in the streets.
But, meteorologically speaking, nearly everything else was on the platter -- historic snowfalls, tropical storms and flooding that tore roads apart.
And now, with nearly a month to go, 2011 has set another mark -- it's the wettest year on record for Danbury.
"The glass half-full side of this is that nobody's well went dry,'' said Bill Jacquemin, chief meteorologist with the Connecticut Weather Center in Danbury.
According to Weather Underground, Bridgeport, as recorded at Sikorsky Airport, has received 54.18 inches of precipitation in 2011 so far, far higher than the average of 39.89 inches.
Jacquemin said that by the end of November, Danbury had received 72.7 inches of precipitation this year. With most of December still to go, that's more than an inch over the previous record year of 71.49 inches of precipitation that fell in 1983. It's more than 20 inches higher than the city's average annual precipitation of 49.3 inches.
What has been interesting about 2011, Jacquemin said, was that by and large, it has been wet all through the year. The only exception was in July, when only 1.43 inches of rain fell in the Danbury area.
Jacquemin said he believes that climate change is the culprit here. Because the Earth's atmosphere is warming, he said, more moisture gets into the air.
As a result, Jacquemin said, the state will see more severe storms in the years to come.
"We're going to have to keep saying `I've never seen a storm like this,' '' he said. "It's happening globally and nationally.''
But Jacquemin said that because November has been relatively warm and dry, he thinks that mild pattern will prevail. Unlike the past winter -- when it snowed a lot in December and January, much less in February and March -- Jacquemin doesn't expect winter to kick in until later.
"It will be a flip-flop of last year,'' he said.Read more: http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Living-through-Danbury-s-wettest-year-2343546.php#ixzz1fgBboZPP
Monday, November 28, 2011
12-8 Still no pattern change. The end of the period still shows return to neutral, but that return keeps getting pushed off. How long can an AO remain positive?
noon disco- NAM does show a snow event wed nite into thurs. Normally the NAM runs a bit north of the other models, but its something to watch now. CMC and GFS both have storms, but a little to far out to sea. 0z UKMET has a storm going right over us bringing rain. Opening separat post on event as more data is coming in.
12-1 update: this afternoon had ensembles for 12-15 with +pna, ao and nao heading -. GFS operational completely the opposite though. JB posted yesterday that "the ugliest pre dec 15 week in us since 2005 is on its way" HM posting that 60% of the country could be covered with snow and there will be an east coast storm next week. Now the models have been showing a storm in the dec 6-8 range, but its been cutting west of the Apps.
Below are the major winter indices: Artic Oscilation (AO), Pacific North America (PNA) and North Atlantic (NAO) as forecast by the GFS today. Typical cold patterns have a postive PNA to set the ridge in the East Pacific so cold air comes into CONUS. AO as negative to release the cold air from the pole and NAO negative to keep the cold air around. While the PNA is currently positive, the NAO is really high and AO is really high. Then PNA goes negative. Also note the error pattern on the NAO and AO. The bold line is the actual, grey line is the consensus. When looking at the 10 and 14 day charts, the typical bias since Sept 1 is that the predicted consensus is lower than the actual and for today its much lower. So until we can change at least the AO to a strong negative, no real brutal or sustained cold air masses.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Wettest Aug/Sept/Oct periods were:
1927 – 22.8 warmer
1933 – 21.46 cooler
1989 – 22.85 warmer 1c
2005 – 21.17 warmer 2c
1983 – 20.56 warmer .5c
1955 – 20.4
1934 – 17.55 (cooler .5)
Wettest years with over 60" of precip by October were:
1975 – 61.21 (Warmer .5c)
1983 – 80.56 (Warmer .5c)
1989 – 65.11 (Warmer 1c)
1990 – 60.92 (Warmer 5c)
2007 – 61.7 (Warmer 3c)
Overwhelming indication that the DJF period will be warmer than normal
11-26 note: arguing against analogs is my three month cycle theory. JUN/JUL/AUG were below norm with SEPT/OCT/NOV above normal. This would lead to a below norm for DEC/JAN/FEB.
12-13 note: as of right now, there is no snow in the long range models for the rest of the month. Using Poughkepsie stats, here are some other years without snow in December and how they turned out:
2006 - Jan('07) 1.5; Feb 17.5; Mar 3.2 note Dxr had 8.3 in Feb
1994 - Jan ('95) 0; Feb 4; Mar 0
And years with under 1.5 inches:
2004 - Jan(05) 22; Feb 11; Mar 16
1999 - Jan(00) 6.4; Feb 2.1; Mar 0
1998 - Jan (99) 15.9; Feb 1.5; Mar 1.9
1997 - Jan (98) 0; Feb 13; Mar 1.6
Out of those years, 98 and 99 were dry at POU, although other stations were closer to normal.
There are no years to compare where we got 17 inches in October.
Monday, November 14, 2011
No model has any threat of snow for next ten days. Will post again once trough becomes established or if storm threat arises.
11-22 Watching long range models which have been showing cold air invasion in week two, but keeps trending to splitting the trough and pumping warmth in. No evidence that even if the cold air gets here, that it stays for over a few days. Watching highs develop over OK/TX and moving NE over Mid Atlantic. Not a cold pattern. Will check in after Thanksgiving.
Still a borderline snow event for Tues, Wed before Thxgvg. Just a matter of whether the storm goes flat and underdeveloped, or if it amplifies and winds up (and where it deepens as well). Nothing very strong in any event.
Asided from a temporary cold blast or two from frontal passages, no colder than normal weather or snow is in the next two weeks. I am keeping an eye on the time period around Thanksgiving as there could be enough cold air aloft to bring some wet snow, but its not quite as impressive as the Oct. storms.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Snow started in Danbury around 11am per facebook posts. Lasted until the middle of Saturday night. NWS official total was 17.2 inches for Danbury. Power went out at the airport around 3pm and went out at the weather station around 7:30. As of this writing three days later, power has not returned. At the peak, 850,000 CL&P customers (66%) lost power. All of New Fairfield, Ridgefield, Redding, over 95% of Bethel, Newtown and 66% of Danbury lost power. Those totals have only moved down slightly three days later. Temp in the house bottomed out at 48 degrees and has stayed there for the most part. The bedroom was heated to 59 using 15 candles last night. We lost limbs off the front maple, which crushed the forsythia, we lost a wygelia, spirea, butterfly bush, branches off a lilac, an entire lilac in the back, an entire dogwood, a third of another dogwood, prized rosebush, limbs off the back pine tree remain hanging. No damage to the house. There is a tree across Jefferson ave midway down the street, and powerlines cross the street further. Just about every property has trees down of some kind, although housing structures were not all that impacted. Restaurants and the mall are booming.
Ridgefield - 17"; Shelton 12"; Greenwich 12"; Oxford 12"; N Caldwell, nj 12", W. Orange, 8"; W Milford 19"; Harriman 16"; Armonk 12"; CPark 3"; Mahopac 12"
Windsor Locks 20", Bristol 17", Coventry 10"; Ashfield, MA 25"; Plainfield Ma, 30.5"; Springfield 14"; Goshen Ma, 25"
Jaffrey NH 31.4"; Troy NH, 25"; New Ipswich ,26"
Bakersville CT 18", Winsted, 18" N Milford, 14"; Peru, MA 24"; Millbrook NY 21.6"; Halcott Ctr 11.5"; Phonecia 10"; Brattleboro 15"
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
12z GFS pulls a bit in closer to land, has a 1004 low going to 996 of ACY in 6hrs. The -5isotherm is ok over the below target area and should support at least 10:1 snow ratio. The 0 850 isotherm remain just south of LI over Monmouth county and follows the tpke to PHL, until later when it crashes in. Areas north of this line will see a mix or all snow. South will be a rain to snow. The 0 line does not make it to the coast, so I will not see much snow in Ocean city. GFS bullseyse for snow is Springfield Ma, where it has 18 inches.
12z Nam is much more aggressive with the cold air aloft. The thickness line is well clear of dxr. the -5 isotherm is over entire ct and makes it to the coast, so according to it, there will be snow along the shore. Nam targets Sussex and Springfield MA with 12-18 inches. It also brings accumlulating snows to the shore.
12z Euro has 1.6 inches of precip for DXR. All falling with thicknesses that support mostly snow and all with the 850 temps between -4.6 and -5.7. Although it has ground temps in the 40's. Not buying the ground temps as if its going to snow or rain that hard and be that cold so close to the surface, the air temps will be in the low to mid 30's.
ukmet and cmc also agree with snow for the area.
Still think 3-5 for DXR. Will be tough to accurately measure since a lot will melt and compact. Not happy as leaves finally all turned, but are still on trees.
NWS has winter storm watch out for 4-8 inches of snow. Current models all have a significant snow event for this time of year. One NAM run and GFS run brings over 8" to CT. My earlier thoughts about boundary layer temps may be misguided. This morning we had a hard freeze, ground was crunchy. With temps in the 30's most of the day and falling into the 20's tonite, should allow for ground warmth to become less of a factor. I am expecting 6-8 inches in Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Dutchess, Litchfield and North of Hartford as its possible it never rains. 3-5 inches in Danbury, Northern Westchester, Putnam, Rockland. 1-3 around the Essex, White Plains and Bergen counties. I'm undercutting all mets at this point since in areas south of 84, this is unprecedented in my lifetime. It is believable for Sussex and Litchfield ctys, perfect storm hit them. So climatology is keeping me from making a call that its a big storm for everyone. the 0z Euro is nuts bringing heavy snows into the city and almost to the coast- see below. The entire state of Ct is below -5 at 850 at this time. Snow ratios should be 10:1 if thats the case.
10-27 12 GFS comes around to Euro idea, Euro maintains coastal track, see GFS snow map below. UKMET agrees, CMC is farthest east. NAM misses the area completely, but brushes SNJ and RI
10-26 Euro pushed east a bit, then came back west. JMA still supports large storm, euro not as bad, but still snow on Sat. GFS has snow on Sat as well, but mostly to our south. 18z nam way out to sea with no precip.
10-25 update - Euro hanging on, but losing support
Mets and models catching onto possible snow in the area thurs nite. Still a coating or no accum is likely.
Saturday is another problem. Euro continues to blow up a storm and have it snow. 0z ukmet supports it, 0z cmc brushes east ct and south nj with snow, but more out to sea (ots). DGEX and 0,6 and 12z GFS don't phase the storms and are suffering from interference from Rina. Thus keeping one storm out to sea and the other goes north, or not even showing a shortwave. 12z cmc is way out to sea, and can't tell on the ukmet, but also looks ots.
JMA is still bullish like Euro
10-24 afternoon update.
JMA puts a 990 low off the cape on sunday, with 850 temps supporting snow (no word on ground temps though).
ukmet has nice low to our south and high right where it needs to be on the 0z run, but the 12z bombs one up the coast (no guidance as to temps yet but the 540 height is there indicating cold enough aloft).
12z cmc brings the 0/850 line over us thurs morn and keeps it to the south as waves move over on thurs and fri, but keeps the precip south as well. Funny if SNJ got snow before us. On sat it blows up another wave into a good low, but right over PHL, resulting in rain to snow for DXR.
12zeuro brings the 850 line south of us on fri, with some residual flurries. But really winds up the storm off the coast on Sat, with serious snow, based on the 850 temps. By Sat, the ground may be closer to 35 or 38 degrees if it gets that cold on thurs. The low on Sun morn is off CCod around 986mb
So all models but CMC have a good storm brewing, CMC is just too inland.
NWS is not on this right now. Will see if they mention later though.
I had been thinking mid november for the first 1" snow on the ground, with the first flakes in the beginning of Nov.
This mornings gfs has a shocking prediction of snow on the ground for the 28th! First run I've seen with over 1" The 0z Euro kinda supports it too, either the 27th or 30th. However, we haven't even had a frost yet, so it will really have to snow hard as to not melt as the ground temps are probably closer to 50. So I will say that it will not accumulate over an inch due to ground warmth, but if it were two weeks later, it would have had a better chance.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Euro went nuts on the 0z run last nite with a storm on thurs nite putting flakes in the air and then bringing another storm up the coast on sat nite, with more snow in the air. 0z GFS is weaker and flatter on the first and keeps the second well off coast, but does put flurries in. 6z GFS has more snow - pix below. 0z gfs does follow with a potent storm, accumulating snow for the 4th. See the first accum post for what the 6z gfs shows
aside note - no real frost yet this year, just a lite scattered one on the 7th
No go for the 21st, but real promising for around the 29th. Yesterday's euro had the trough lifting out with the gfs having the trough digging in (btw - euro had no rinna, gfs and every other model did). Today, euro flips to the deep trough with rinna riding just east of the coast, drawing cold air in, as does the 0z run of the gfs. Look for snow in the air, perhaps coating if the cold air can come in. Temps are in the mid 30's though. Other issue is that this is a warm to cold air scenario which doesn't usually produce much for snow as the moisture leaves before the cold air arrives. But there is a 980 low off the coast, so....
Euro 10/21 for 10/29
GFS and Euro agree on some snow in the region on 10/21, although not sticking and probably not making it into Danbury. Something to keep an eye on as its the first run I've seen snow on (not that I've been really looking for it yet).
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
18zhwrf has shifted to the immediate coast solution - a 948 low coming of the obx at 6z, 952 at mouth of del bay at 12z and 952 over brooklyn/queens. Again, not much weakening.
18z gfdl is sending irene nw into NC, until right before it hits when it veers near beaufort, and drops from 960 to 956, perhaps tightening as it nears land. Passes over pamlico sound, exits as a 956, next to delmarva at 12z, heads north into Trenton, maintaining 956 by 18z.
0z NAM shifts west (basis for hwrf too) brings track through pamlico, back inland around ACY, up the parkway right over nyc. Keeps its strength too. 974mb. It initializes at 984, drops to 972 as it hits NC. However, winds don't exceed 50kts on that model, even over water, but don't diminish much as it heads north. Note the pressure as I write this is 950.
Regardless of the wind - predictions are for 9 inches or more of rain.
12 euro puts a 960 low from inland of hatteras, back over water maintains it until cape may. Follows parkway up through nj into hudson valley, reaching our area as a 972 low
GFDL came east to the Del river. HWrf went east hitting twin forks. GFS, NAM still off nj coast into LI. UKMEt up del river like gfdl
None of the models have this weakening (or strenghtening for that matter).
But unless this monster reforms, wrapping itself up along the coast, I am doubtful we get much here with the wind, certainly not hurricane sustained. Rain, however, won't go away. I'd be surprised if we wake up to a hurricane warning. Rapid dissipation flag has been on today on the ATD site, and its been flagged for weakening all day too. You can see the bands of dry air working into the center, effectively killing this.
8-26 - First looks shows NAM is furthest east with landfall on long island. GFS 6z goes right up the nj coast, also hitting LI closer to nyc. Euro shifted east, but still has lp going right up the nj coast, over nyc and over dxr. UKMET takes it up Ches bay, up the Del river. CMC takes it up the coast, but veers east, hits LI and East CT. HWRF takes it over OBX, just off ACY, over New Haven. GFDL is still taking it over DC through East PA. Mid range model consesus is just off OBX, ACY and straight up over LI and into CT.
I am still leaning east, keeping NJ out of major surge and major wind, but its so close and being off by just a little can be devastating. DXR may still see the eye, but it will likely go inland between Bridgeport (BDR) and new haven (NHO). Strength is another problem. As of last night it was really getting its act together, with pressures dropping and eye clearly distinct. But instead, the NHC dropped it to a cat 2. As of this morning, I don't see any strengthening either. So at this point, talk of a cat two hitting LI is over forecasting. Its not the fastest moving storm and its not supposed to pick up speed until it passes, so there is a lot of time for this to weaken as it goes up the coast. Mitigating that are water temps which marginally support maintaining strength at least to ACY. Low Cat one is my call for now, over Nassau cty. I don't expect sustained winds anywhere over 80mph. However, gusts can still get to over 100mph. There will be a lot, 5-10 inches of rain over NJ, NYC and Orange,Westchester.
But as I said, the storm moving 30 miles further west, which is only about the diameter of the 2 eyes, means landfall in ACY and winds extend hundreds of miles out.
8-25 late evening. NWS still has us with just about a direct hit on the metro area. While I still favor a further eastern trend, its a bit unnerving seeing the envelope still being eastern ct and eastern pa. Likewise from Morehead NC to missing OBX. 0z NAM came in with it staying offshore until long island. 18z run takes it up the nj coast and right over nyc. This is worst case scenario for us. 18z gfs hits central long island. So there is a trend east, but its going to have to take another 150 miles at this point for us to avoid heavy rain and trop force winds. Not likely.
12z euro still tracking through nj. gfdl still in eastern pa, but the 18z trended much closer to philly.
8-25 Models shift west - furthest west is GFDL and maybe 12z ukmet bringing it into NC south of OBX, over richmond, dc, between hbg and phl. Eastern side is marked by the hurricane models, most of which still keep it offshore until new england. Prepare, wait for tomorrow afternoon when all players are being sampled.
0z euro has it hitting in mid NC coast, going north over VA beach, inside Ches Bay, up del river, over trenton as a 972 LP, hurricane force winds on the jersey and delmarva coast, with 60+kt winds all through nj, east pa, ct . Rain up to 3 inches east of the track, 5+ over east pa, into central ny state, east nc, east va, all md.
12z nam goes right off the coast from OBX to Central LI/East LI. 6z is similar, but only goes out to Sun afternoon when its a 970 off Cape May
HWRF has storm at 100kt hitting OBX hard, going right along delmarva, up the middle of nj with 70-80kt winds hitting nyc, li by sunday afternoon, heads up hudson valley that evening with trop storm force winds hitting CT, LI, and points east. Winds are only 20kts inland, which isn't likely. LP is 934 just south of Cape May and 936 over Jackson, NJ
GFDL has storm at 110 right before slamming south of OBX, goes up to DC, with 80-90 kt winds in ches bay and along delmarva. as eye rides up east PA, 50-60kt winds hit nj and li coast.
CMC goes from OBX to ACK - almost misses completely. It starts a NE movement once it gets to the GA/FL border latitude. 12z CMC much closer to nj coast and nyc.
GFS - 0z run hits OBX, goes off Delmarva, up into NJ at Cape May, over NYC and West CT. Hits NJ coast as 966 low. 6z is a little east, 12z is further east and weaker at 972, perhaps staying just off coast of nj. Then the 12z has it go over central li and eastern ct with a sharper hook left. All runs have it lanfall in the OBX area. Surface winds aren't at hurricane force, even at the OBX, which is odd. 850mb winds are widespread 75kt+ though.
6z GFS ENS have the storm just off obx going just off the nj coast to suffolk cty and eastern ct. 12z ens about the same perhaps a bit west.
Nogaps takes 980 low just off OBX to Brooklyn/Queens fading to 985 low.
UKMET has 986 low over OBX at 72h then over Vineland at 96hr and central ME at 120. 12z run looks like the gfdl track of into wilmington, richmond, dc (but then at 72 and may be recurving).
12z gfs shifted west a bit. Grazes nc, 8pm sat, moves maybe 50-60 miles off ACY, then the eye clips monauk and heads over RI/MA. LP is around 960-964. Oddly it show the highest winds at 65-70kts (over ocean) with 30-40kt winds over eastern half of nj, most of ct, nyc and li. Some parts of li getting 60kts. Chatam, MA looks to be getting the 65-70kt winds. Not liking this as even at the OBX the winds offshore are not hurricane strength.
More concerning is the Euro, which is taking the storm due north from OBX and running it across NJ, NYC and up the Hudson Valley. sub 960 low.
12z gfdl brings it over the obx and up the coast, east of NYC and up RT from Bridgeport (BDR). It does so as a 928 LP, which doesn't match the winds.
12z hwrf has it just east of obx with 80kts onshore and 90 ots. Goes up across Suffolk cty, into Eastern CT. Cat one hurricane force winds along the coast the entire way up. LP from 930 off OBX to 934 before it hits LI.
All the model tracks remain inside the benchmark.
CMC/GGEM also has it brushing OBX and hitting Eastern LI and Eastern CT.
Models shifting slightly west. Will know more tomorrow as the trough that is supposed to move Irene out is going to enter North America and we get a better grip on its strength and speed.
8-24 model roundup - trending east as mentioned below.
Hurricane models - winds are in kts, sustained. Higher gusts very likely.
GFDL 6z 8-24 run has eye wall just off the obx with max winds of 120kts, sat 2pm. Takes it over the obx weakening to 100-11o kts. Moving just east of the delmarva with top winds off shore of 90-100kts. By 2pm sunday, its in delaware bay with top winds just off ac at 90-100kts. Pressure is at 928 which would either be too low for the winds, or the winds are too low for the pressure. Its over trenton at 8pm with pressure of 932, winds offshore over 70kts, with most winds inland of under ts strength. Moves over high point by 2am monday, with 40-50kt winds hitting CT coast and 60-70kts hitting long island and lake erie. Pressure at 940.
Hwrf from 6z. 2pm sat Storm just off OBX with 100-110kt winds well offshore. OBX in 90kt winds, pressure at 928. 2am Sun 100miles east of delmarva, pressure 928 winds 90-100kts, with no hurricane force winds inland. 2pm sun just south of islip, pressure 932, winds 80-90 kts hitting twin forks of li with 70kts hitting ct coast. By 8pm, its in the berkshires, 944 passing just east of dxr, looks like it goes right between bdr and nho. 60-70kt winds still hitting coast.
FWIW - DGEX takes 960 low from OBX to off acy, montauk, to the west of the cape, over boston.
12z NAM seems to take it just off OBX, headed nne in the last frame. This is a shift from the 6z run which had it passing over or just west of hatteras 2pm on sat.
Euro - 0z takes it right over OBX, off delmarva, over islip-ish, just to the east of Hartford over Ashford by 8pm Sun. Sub 960.
CMC - just nicks the OBX at 966 sat morn, heads ne and passes over Ptown at 2pm Sun, missing li, crushing the cape.
UKMET far west, over wilmington nc sat at 8pm with 990 low. moves off delmarva by about 100 miles by sunday 8pm, too slow, but would miss rest of the way if true.
JMA looks to miss obx but heads it to RI sun morn
oz and 6z gfs grazes obx, looks to hit RI hard, passing just west of the cape, crushing it.
Most other hurricane models are taking it just east of obx over or inside the bm.
I go on vacation and a cat 3 storm pops up with us in the center of the cone of uncertainty.
The first is worst case for wind as it passes to our west. Although the more inland route should diminish winds to a cat 1 or strong TS. The direct hit scenario on cone 2 is more rain than wind, although we would still see trop storm winds.
I'm not in either camp. My early guess that the eye passes just E of OBX and SE of Cape Cod. We'll watch the models and the cone shift steadily east. Only problem facing us is if the storm moves quicker than currently forecast. Two problems with that - first, it gets here before the trough can push it out. Second, it keeps its strength farther north.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
As a fun note, our 18th storm will be named Sean. Not thinking we will get that far though.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
June is running below normal temp wise, despite the few days of heat at the start. We've been locked into a pattern where an upper low sits over the lakes, keeping it cool with on and off rain. In the 14 days since the heatwave broke, only 4 had no rain, with no above normal highs.
First signs of hurricane season showing up on the GFS with a TS making landfall around the TX/LA area on the 7th-8th. Not seen on the euro though, not yet at least
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
3-31 12z runs are in Euro - colder. East over BM. Only .3 in precip, mostly at below 0 850 temps, but not dynamic enough to support accumulation. GFS - now near BM, .barely 5 precip, mostly at below 850 temp - see euro CMC is hanging in there, per below UKMET - complete miss, OTS Except for the CMC, the models don't deepen this until its past cape cod. With all the components on the playing field and sampled, its hard to argue. 3-6 inches may not hold for DXR anymore. 12z RGEM over BM 12 gfs precip - shifted east 3-31 Track is still wobbling Things are usually clearer at 12hrs out, but the GFS moved west overnite, causing mostly rain for places within 60 miles of NYC, mix on the fringes, as did the NAM. Euro did not make that adjustment, and neither did the ukmet or cmc. Then the 6z runs of the NAM and GFS were a little east, and then the 12z runs were further east. So the track looks more favorable for some snow, but instead of the storm deepening south of LI, its now not progged to deepen on these to models until its past CCOD. So even though the temps aloft are cooler, there is much less precip - only .5 in DXR and less further west. So less precip means of course less rain or snow. But without the dynamics of the deepening and heavier precip, the ability to draw cold air from the atmosphere means its more difficult to change to snow. Per the 12z NAM and GFS, areas west of NYC may not get much at all. 12z RGEM is out with the low going over the BM, and is more bullish on the precip, but still its far enough east to have NEPA miss heavy precip. Experience shows thought that the precip shield on the models more often spreads further north and west than indicated, so the RGEM looks ok compared to GFS. I'm still with 3-6 for SW CT, 6+ for NW CT. However for NJ, I'm decreasing to 2-4, with 6" only at 1000 feet or higher. Will update when 12z foreign runs are in. euro 12z ukmet 12z 3-30 Its the track.... 12z runs pushed a bit east, with Euro moving most of W nj, hud val, and ct back into the snow, or at least wet snow range. GFS nudged east, NAM catching on finally, but still east. GFENS are not supporting the GFS with their 850 temps being south of NYC for most of the event, and surface low closer to the BM than Islip. UKMET also shifted east to a snowier solution. No reason to change forecast based on 12z runs. Euro has snow though for Thurs, which I'm doubting will amount to anything. Below is the output for the euro - note surface temps above freezing, 850 is below, but not enough for pure snow, although the critical thickness of 540 is met. day-time--sfc---850---slp---prec--- hgt --- thck
THU 18Z 5.8 -2.9 1011 0.01 547 539------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This mornings runs all lean toward a massive rain event for the tristate, with snow pushed into NEPA, Catskills and Mass. This is due to the track of the 500 low, 850 low and surface low. Most models place the surface low between NYC and the BM. This brings in warmer air from the ocean to places which would have avoided it if it were closer to the BM. Example - DXR now would have an E or SE wind, instead of a N or NE wind. With the 850 low going over NYC, the areas east will have temps above 0c. There would be some mixing inland, with maybe some minor accum on the front and back end. Now, the NAM is still not looking right, and the ensembles have a perfect placement for a major snowstorm for the N and W subs of NYC. I'll still stick with a 3-6 inch storm here and in the NW subs, with over a foot in higher elevs as mentioned above. If storm moves further east, will have to go all rain. CMC above Gfs precip Euro precip GFS mslp and 850 line 3-29 Big developments 0z gfs brings stacked low, 980 at surface over NNJ at 18z Friday - rain to snow, mostly rain for tristate 12z moves off coast with 980 over ACK at 18z, stacked, with mostly snow for tristate (mix on the coast), precip 1.25, see pic 0z euro haz 984 low over BM at 18z fri, all snow and precip near 1" 12z euro haz 980 low, closer to Block Island, all snow and precip near 1.5" - winds 30-40, see precip graphic 0z RGEM has 979 low passing just se of BM at 21z, barely glancing us with showers 12z RGEM has 969 low passing over BM, just off CCOD, mostly snow for us. 0z Ukmet brings 984 low se of BM 12z ukmet brings 984 low up into LI by 12z Friday - real close for thickness and 850 line JMA is on board with 990 low parked over Texas Tower, though not closed off. Euro ens support the operational, which is odd. Gfs ens are se of the operational, which is usual. Spread is greatest to the NW. The 850 temps are really cold though. Precip of .5 in the area SREF ens look to take the low just SE of the BM, with the spread to the SW, which indicates the WRF members which I will explain next. Precip of .5 WRF/NAM has the first storm blowing up off the coast, and then just a mess of LP, disorganized coming afterwards. In short, no storm on the NAM at all. This is where some of the other models were a few days ago, but each NAM run is consistent. Even so, the first storm drops .5 in the form of snow, but on Wed nite into thurs. Call - 72 hrs out with a lot of consensus as to something big coming. Its going to be tough in the city and along the coast, but just inland, 3-6 seems assured with a chance for up to a foot. NWS Upton caught on in the afternoon shift, and now lowered temps into the mid 30's with 70% chance of snow. Elevation will matter - could be over a foot in areas over 1000 feet. This event is different than last week. Last week was a weak storm, throwing bursts of snow which could not amount to much. If this stays forecast around 980mb, stacked, it will be strong enough to pull down cold air from aloft, and accumulate. Whats missing is a strong high to the north (instead is a weaker high sliding off, which will still keep in some cold air, but not enough), and the exact track. 18z gfs run just came in and it brings the low closer in, resulting in more rain for the city and coast. Mix inland. We'll see what the nam brings in at 0z- if it catches on or not. NCEP has a 10% chance of over a foot.
FRI 00Z 3.3 -1.0 1009 0.05 546 539
FRI 06Z 2.2 -0.1 1003 0.18 543 540
FRI 12Z 1.2 -1.6 995 0.55 536 540
FRI 18Z 1.5 -4.6 991 0.36 529 536
SAT 00Z 1.5 -5.4 994 0.17 527 532
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
0z euro output - note temps are marginal, but precip is rather3-29 morning - euro and gfs in unholy alliance with noreaster on friday.
time surfac 850 press hum precip thck height
06Z 01-APR 2.6 -1.5 1009 78 29 0.00 546 538
12Z 01-APR 1.6 -2.0 1003 85 90 0.14 540 538
18Z 01-APR 1.8 -1.9 998 89 91 0.67 533 535
00Z 02-APR 1.6 -4.2 999 91 96 0.31 530 531
06Z 02-APR -0.8 -3.2 997 93 75 0.02 529 531
Timing is critical as gfs is earlier and overnite resulting in 6+ snow
Euro is later and falls mostly during the day, which should limit accums
12z gfs showing slightly colder temps than euro. Both produce around an inch
DGEX, UKMET and CMC are out to sea. NAM doesn't have the storm.
3-28 Somethings coming.... using accuweather graphics today.
Ukmet runs today showed the worst case scenario with a stacked lows, cut off and 970 mb. It stood alone in its severity, with the DGEX coming in next with a 976 low parked off shore, and over 18 inches of snow for the tristate. GFS has various solutions, all giving at least CT some snow, with the bullseye generally around Springfield MA. It only goes to about 980. Euro is very odd with a low off NC/VA that stalls from thurs morn into fri afternoon. But finer resolution on accuweather pro shows why - its two different storms. More of a brushing by for us, but still bringing snow. It only goes to 1008 mb. JMA, just to be different, cuts it up over Pittsburgh. GFS Ens are frightening at 12z, but the other runs have it going SE of the BM. CMC is out to sea with both today.
Call - not looking like a nice way to end the week. If its a month ago, even two weeks, its definitely a snow storm. But with warmer air around, it may snow like crazy and not accumulate. If its precipitating on Friday as heavy as it looks, then its also not going to be in the 40's or 50's. I'm thinking heavy wet snow for here, with N Ct and higher elevs getting 3-7 inches. Here, if at night, we could get the same.
Order of pix should be dgex snow, ukmet, gfs 12z and gfs 18z, dgex slp
3-27 A Tale of two Euros
3-31 and 4-1 pix with two different solutions. So either a minor storm on Thurs (0z run) or major storm on Sat (12z)
Models of no use - GFS is all over the place. CMC is the most consistent, bringing snow on Th and Sat. DGEX has the same.
NWS has nothing forecast
3-25 The overnight and morning gfs runs have the storm still, as does the ukmet. DGEX, JMA has it going to our south, CMC, Nogaps and Euro don't have anything organized, but do have a wave going to our south. update: 12z Euro now has minor storm similar to 0z gfs. 12z ukmet flipped to the 0z euro solution.
3-23 evening. All afternoon runs of the models below no longer have any storms - any moisture goes east south of NC.
3-23 - euro, GFS. DGEXand CMC all have a Low off the coast on 3/30-31. 850 temps support snow here.