12/29 afternoon runs -
CMC - 1st still misses. 2nd has upper energy catch up and stalls it, but further out to sea than gfs. Still has us at the southern edge of the snow, but pounds north of MA. Snows mostly friday afternoon thru sunday. Goes to 962mb in gulf of maine and spins around until Monday.
Euro - weaker first system with snow. Second catches up but off shore, then spins back into Maine then out on Sunday. Keeps all of NE in the right RH% for snow.
Ukmet - up to 72 hrs, does not have anything through 12z friday. Profile supports all snow, as does CMC and EURo. On longer map, it bombs out just east of the 40/70 to 976 on Sat mornand spins back to Cape cod on Sunday morn.
DGEX looks like it bombs out over the benchmark, rotates around the gulf of maine down to 970mb, back over ACK on sunday nite then out. But the precip field only reaches back to hartford
12z gfs pushes first low east of benchmark on thurs nite, with precip after midnite, as rain. Waits until Saturday, well off cape cod for the other energy to catch up and it bombs out, pivoting into Maine and the gulf of maine/ Tries to exit over the cape, but dissapates. The precip field is not very far west, nor south. It does reach 976 while over Maine, but only brings precip to north of midway up vt, nh and me. Essentially a non event for W. CT.
18z run is much less organized with the first wave, with precip starting Fri morn, and rain line much further south and east than 12 z. Much more likely to have snow in W CT on this run.All north of CT is snow, as opposed to 12z run which had rain all the way into vt and nh. The low stalls all day Friday, literally in the sound, out to ACK. Then the second one catches up and it explodes, rotating into the gulf of maine and out over the cape again. This should crush most of new england, but the precip is not impressive
WRF/NAM - up to Friday has nothing for CT as first wave goes out to sea.
JMA is also saying out to sea, when it explodes and turns into the border of Maine, so it misses us.
Its truly amazing that 4 days out, the models (WRF and GFS) are so opposite.
Euro - forms storm over SC thurs nite, moves off cape cod fri night. Does not phase with n stream and cut off until way out to sea
CMC - forms one storm over VA thurs nite which goes out to sea with min snow. Forms another storm off FL and brings up coast off NC sat nite and just to our east, bombing out, sunday with a few inches of snow
UKMet - forms thurs nite off VA and goes out to sea (at 144) no indication of another storm following
DGEX - major 30 inch storm as it starts NEw years, gets caught in the upper low and explodes friday during the day. anywhere from 12-30 inches show up on the snow map
GFS has storm off coast of NC at noon on 12/31, going out to sea with min effects. But another forms over TN and FL and they phase Friday during the day with a 1004 right off NJ coast. That sticks around, caught by the upper low cut off, until Sun morn (180 hrs). It deepens to 992 before occluding and weakening. Would be major snow event.
Watch for weak storm to come in around New years eve, with a stronger one following . CMC has blizzard the following weekend, Euro has big noreaster. JMA and GFS jump on the 12-31 storm instead.
Correction - 12z gfs now has it in the second storm with the first one weaker. But second storm is not strong and is a little too far off thecoast. This will move back in time.