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Saturday, December 26, 2009

New Years Eve and weekend after

12/31 - after having the models still disagree yesterday, all have come around on 0z runs today to have the second storm form way too far out to sea. Some (euro) still produce moisture enough to snow, while others don't. Instead of pivoting the low into cape cod, they now just have it going into canada. The exception is WRF 6z run which still has low on sunday in gulf of maine. Result is only snow for the first storm here as radar looks good. Second storm may bring flurries here and only wrf and cmc has precip progged for vt. The euro doesn't prog precip, but its RH maps support snow through sunday. Amazingly, the WRF, CMC, UKMet and GFS still don't have much snow on the first one, if any, and the mets are calling for 2-5 inches. Good for them unless this dries up again as radar looks good for 2 inches at least. Other thing is that they all have the low closing over us, which should have resulted in some dynamics to produce precip with the available moisture.


12/29 afternoon runs -
CMC - 1st still misses. 2nd has upper energy catch up and stalls it, but further out to sea than gfs. Still has us at the southern edge of the snow, but pounds north of MA. Snows mostly friday afternoon thru sunday. Goes to 962mb in gulf of maine and spins around until Monday.
Euro - weaker first system with snow. Second catches up but off shore, then spins back into Maine then out on Sunday. Keeps all of NE in the right RH% for snow.
Ukmet - up to 72 hrs, does not have anything through 12z friday. Profile supports all snow, as does CMC and EURo. On longer map, it bombs out just east of the 40/70 to 976 on Sat mornand spins back to Cape cod on Sunday morn.
DGEX looks like it bombs out over the benchmark, rotates around the gulf of maine down to 970mb, back over ACK on sunday nite then out. But the precip field only reaches back to hartford
12z gfs pushes first low east of benchmark on thurs nite, with precip after midnite, as rain. Waits until Saturday, well off cape cod for the other energy to catch up and it bombs out, pivoting into Maine and the gulf of maine/ Tries to exit over the cape, but dissapates. The precip field is not very far west, nor south. It does reach 976 while over Maine, but only brings precip to north of midway up vt, nh and me. Essentially a non event for W. CT.
18z run is much less organized with the first wave, with precip starting Fri morn, and rain line much further south and east than 12 z. Much more likely to have snow in W CT on this run.All north of CT is snow, as opposed to 12z run which had rain all the way into vt and nh. The low stalls all day Friday, literally in the sound, out to ACK. Then the second one catches up and it explodes, rotating into the gulf of maine and out over the cape again. This should crush most of new england, but the precip is not impressive
WRF/NAM - up to Friday has nothing for CT as first wave goes out to sea.
JMA is also saying out to sea, when it explodes and turns into the border of Maine, so it misses us.
Its truly amazing that 4 days out, the models (WRF and GFS) are so opposite.








12/28 morning runs

Euro - has front runner thurs nite with 540 line just s of ct. by fri nite its a 992 over RI, Sat nite its 992 over NH. So not that strong, but persistent as its caught in the upper low

CMC - first system thurs nite brushes us, second system goes off shore where it phases well out to sea. Maybe a few inches thurs nite

UKMEt - moves one storm up to the west of us

DGEX - has a 970 low just south of LI, to ACK - starts Fri and ends Mon morn. snow is off the chart - see above - should be more widespread

GFS - starts thurs nite, rains in CT and tracks over CT where it bombs to 992 and hangs out until sunday morn

JMA - goes out to sea and back into maine as a 969 low.

Summary - models everywhere and flip flopping - not sure if one or two systems, or if the first will stick around, bomb out or what. Very likely we will have snow, less likely rain, and unlikely nothing.

12/27 morning runs
Euro - forms storm over SC thurs nite, moves off cape cod fri night. Does not phase with n stream and cut off until way out to sea
CMC - forms one storm over VA thurs nite which goes out to sea with min snow. Forms another storm off FL and brings up coast off NC sat nite and just to our east, bombing out, sunday with a few inches of snow
UKMet - forms thurs nite off VA and goes out to sea (at 144) no indication of another storm following
DGEX - major 30 inch storm as it starts NEw years, gets caught in the upper low and explodes friday during the day. anywhere from 12-30 inches show up on the snow map
GFS has storm off coast of NC at noon on 12/31, going out to sea with min effects. But another forms over TN and FL and they phase Friday during the day with a 1004 right off NJ coast. That sticks around, caught by the upper low cut off, until Sun morn (180 hrs). It deepens to 992 before occluding and weakening. Would be major snow event.

Watch for weak storm to come in around New years eve, with a stronger one following . CMC has blizzard the following weekend, Euro has big noreaster. JMA and GFS jump on the 12-31 storm instead.

Correction - 12z gfs now has it in the second storm with the first one weaker. But second storm is not strong and is a little too far off thecoast. This will move back in time.

Monday 28th

Should see some light snow amounts as the artic front comes through, but nothing worth following. Watch if snow enhances near the coast as storm forms off shore. NAM and GFS has one inch forecast.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Christmas

Haven't posted yet on this as it does not seem to be a snow event. What should happen is the storm should run to the lakes with secondary development just off the coast.

Right now, all models show this. The difference is in timing and the eastern extent of the primary low. They are waffling between bringing the low to the lakes, then east over MI and NY where it secondaries, and bringing it west of the lakes, where it dies and the secondary forms in GA and runs up the coast. The first results in precip in on Christmas eve/morn, the latter with precip Christmas night into saturday. All models have the 540 thickness line going into Canada, so it will change to rain. The models also backload the precip - meaning that all the precip falls after the 0 line at 850 crosses. This is suspect. There is a high located in Canada, sliding off to the east which puts cold damming in to play. If the precip comes early, which the mets are progging, then there will be a period of sleet and freezing rain. If we can get the secondary stronger, it could be more interesting.

19th -20th strom summary




This long tracked storm ended up originating in the gulf, with input from a shortwave and upper low from the plains. The initial gulf moisture pounded NC, VA, MD and DE, but fell mainly aloft in areas north of Philly.




In Danbury, radar echoes showed up at 8am, with the first flakes falling at 3pm, for about 15min before they shut off. They started again at 8pm, with the ground being covered by 9 and one inch by 10. The snow that fell here was mostly from the combination of the southern storm, shortwave and upper low bombing out just east of new jersey. You could watch the eye of the storm go from the Delmarva off to just south of the benchmark. Danbury ended up with 7 inches officially, but 5-6 mostly in my yard. The wind blew away a lot of the snow as it was very fine. Winds gusted at the house up to 22 mph. I had thought my call of 8 inches was conservative as the precip output on the gfs and nam were between 1.25 and 2 inches for the area. Dry air destroyed this storm for the north as Litchfield, Torrington area got 3 inches, POU got 2.




Elsewhere, LI, RI and Southeast CT had amounts up to 27 inches. Wind gusts there and on the cape were over 50mph. Much of S NJ received over 20 inches, with Roseland getting 11. Surf City, on the beach, received 20 inches. Southern NJ had both the intital moisture and moisture from the bomb off the coast.

Pictures are of snow cover as of today. Should last to Christmas Day when it will likely rain :(




Friday, December 18, 2009

12-20 part two




12-19 all 0z models showing major storm now.
0z nam bumps us down to 2 inches, but 6z back over a foot
0z GFS has atleast a foot, down to 10 inches for 6z
All models have storm rapidly deepning, tucking in around Delaware Bay, moving near or over the benchmark later.
NWS - 6-10 inches (8-14 in WSW)
AW has 6-7 inches on its alarm, but 3-6 on snow map
WU has 7-11, twc 6-12, WTNH has 8, wfsb 10-14, wvit 8-14, wcbs 6-10, wabc 3-6 (uses aw) GFS snow map pinches us off with only 6. Nam has 12-16


12-18LAtest GFS 0z precip total. Looks like at least a foot. Nam backed way off though....

Saturday, December 12, 2009

12-19 Clipper or Southern Branch
















12-18 - midday. GFS finally putting snow down .25-.5 as the storm tracks just off NJ. CAN goes nuts as does wrf which has .5-.75, but the 2in line is at LI. Seems way too tight of a precip gradient and these normally shift north. Plus ratios will be higher in CT. UKMet is furthest east and is weakest. The weaker the storm, the further east. GFS Ensemble has it at the benchmark at 984. How many storms fail to produce when at the benchmark with cold air around? Just in -the HRW - with no precip further north than DE.
AW forecast for Danbury is 3-6. 4 on the weather alert. With HM calling 1-3
NWS winter storm watch of 10am says 5-10 possible
DR Mel - 4-10 with highest east ct and near shore
AW having major issues with connectivity








some pix from the morning












12-16 Euro a bit further east, but still affects us,
GFS 18z run brings right off shore with .25 to .5 inches output
CAN brings one storm out to sea, but reforms another closer to shore. That part looks like the clipper actually.
UKMET brings up to hatteras then out to sea, no effect.
JAP goes a little further east but still hits us.
Nogaps goes up to Hatteras and out to sea, no effect. Has trailing clipper system hitting on Tuesday.
NWS has 30% chance of snow on Saturday
AW has nothing

12-15 UKmet - 0z run way out to sea, 12 z run a little further north but still way out
Euro - 0z right off NJ. 12 z SC to cape cod
CAN - va capes to li. 12 z - hilton head due NE out to sea
NGaps - 0z in near nj. 12z moved east but still hits
GFS - Hangs off the coast too far. 12z moves further north but then out NE.
JAP - a little further east than yesterday, but still hits hard.
NWS - only mentioned chance of energy coming through in discussion
AW - nothing
TWC - chance of snow showers.


12- 14 - Euro onto southern stream storm phasing with northern sw, but on 12/20. GFS still out to sea. DGEX has clipper and it snows for 42 hours. Nogaps onto clipper diving in and reforming off the coast, as is the CAN for the 19th. UKMet only has southern stream and keeps well south. NWS has chance of snow on Sunday. AW has nothing.

12-13 - I see nothing anywhere


12-12 GFS and UKMET and Dgex have small clipper with 2-4 inches coming through on 12-19. Euro has no clipper but a storm over GA. Can has storm starting in TX panhandle at 144.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Drying out in December?


Here is a look at the second to last week, total precip for the week. Wow - while I don't care for dry cold air, this would be amazing if it panned out, that 95% of the country only gets under .5 inches of precip for the week. For the next 15 days, the GFS total precip output for CT is .2 inches.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

12-13 long shot

12-12 - WRF has some snow to start, as does GFS, but less than an inch, lasting 1-2 hrs. No other model looks like it precips until 0 at 850 line passes north, or as it passes.

12-11 - Nam has all rain. GFS puts an inch down before changing to rain -looks to form northwest of benchmark. The accum snow map is off already as we have several inches on the ground not being picked up by the gfs. NAM and GFS almost look like the northern stream sw has too much and reforms over long island, essentially moving west to east. CAN has the most front loaded before changing to rain, and does not warm aloft all that much - keeps the low over the benchmark. UKMEt backloads it - all rain. Cant tell with the euro as its interval is too great - looks backloaded, but never has us in the precip field. Call is snow, freezing rain to rain, within 2 hours. Then light rain or drizzle with high of 36.

12-9 - Euro has low moving from upper plains, northern ohio and directly over us, resulting in another WAA situation. CMC 12z run looks completely bizarre with no low or precip at all, instead temps way above normal on Tuesday - its sunday low is in florida. UKMET has a low sort of forming on sunday off the coast, but has a real low west to east across the GLakes and to our north on Tuesday. DGEX has it clocking us, but the 540 line is north of us. GFS has it going to our south with a light snow event. Literally, all over the map for 4 days away.

12-8 GFS still has coastal, but actually looks like its warming aloft even though the low is east of us. Very odd. Euro has low going to lakes?? odd. Pushes through warm front. UK met has it off shore and looks good. DGEX out to sea.

12-6 - Euro and Gfs (hr168) have this little 1016 feature off the coast for 12-13. DGEX has it going straight east off GA. Official forecast from NWS and accuweather is sunny 35.

12-7 - Euro and GFS still on this thing. DGEX goes south.

Friday, December 4, 2009

12/9 storm

12-8 - not looking good as secondary forms too close. GFS still has on its 18z run a half inch of precip falling before the 0 line goes north of here. But while temps are now below freezing, dew points are in the mid 20s which is too high for a WAA event to produce much snow. 1-3 is pushing it, unless we can get the precip in faster and heavier to start. What was front loaded is now evenly spread.

12-7 - didn't take long to get excited about this one. Its really tough though. The 18z GFS has 0 line on s shore of li at 18z with 6hr precip preceding this time at .5. 32 line at surface cuts the nw corner of CT. Accumlated snow map shows 6 inches which is down from the foot it showed at 12z

18z Nam has the 0 at 850 line south of Trenton. Sim radar has heavy snow falling with up to .5 output in preceding 6 hrs. Also shows stronger secondary storm than gfs above. Nam has temps just below 32 for danbury until 15z and the 0 at 850 until 18z. Accum snow map also shows 6-8 inches on the ground.

Again - I'll believe it when I see a temp under 25 Tuesday when I go to bed.

12-6 - all models, including ukmet blow this to our west. GFS still shows a lot of precip falling before 850 line goes north of us. Not so with NAM. Other models are hard to tell with the 12 hr increments, but they do show some support for a little snow to begin. All have quick turnover to rain. With no serious cold air in place and a 1024 high a little too far NE, this is likely a nonaccum event. Will only post on this further if snow amounts can become defined, or if serious cold (sub 25) happens tuesday night.

Not calling it snowstom yet. CAN double barrels it way to our west. Euro drives it right over us. Nogaps right over us. GFS to our north, but not to the lakes like CAN. UKMEt - has blizzard up the east coast. and this is 5 days away! Most have it starting as snow, changing to rain and possibly ending as snow. all have it way colder afterwards

Thursday, December 3, 2009

12/5-6 snow


12-4 gfs 12z snow map. Wow did this change from yesterday




UKMET from 0z 12-3 with 6+ inches


0z euro 12-3 with 2-3 inches, but mostly offshore



0z can 12-3 with mostly off shore, and dusting

WRF has 1-2 inch storm
GFS snowcover is nada - it brings it up to dc then disappears

12-4 models all shifting west. As of 12z, ukmet so far west with the 540 thickness line, that its a rain event (despite below freezing at 5000 feet). Nam also very close to all rain, even GFS is pushed back to have some rain. CAN crushes us, as does EURO. too bad they don't have precip outputs.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

AO, NAO, PNA - should be cold




For Dec 1-15, PNA is mostly positive (ridging in west), NAO is relatively strongly negative, and the AO is very, very negative. Should result in very cold, dry weather. But the GFS only has it marginally cold with every storm cutting to the lakes. Very contradictory.

Monday, November 30, 2009

12/5 snow


So the 12/2 storm scoots to the west of the mountains, and the cold front comes through, but the upper low is still left behind, spawning a potential light event, albeit the first one, on Saturday 12/5. The image above has the freezing line at the surface, so you can tell that its all snow and sticking.

12/2 evening update - NAM 18z has a bunch of snow, but 0z backs off to a 2-4inch amount. Euro brushes us, Can out to sea. GFS brushes us. More at the coast, still, for now.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

12-2 snow?






11/27 update - happy thanksgiving. GFS has gone from major noreaster, to huge cutter to lakes and now has a minor clipper system sinking down around the lakes and intensifying off the coast, perhaps with some snow. CAN has most snow, GFS little and Euro has nada as it takes it too close to us.



Previous posts had the gfs seeing this. The 12-2 storm looks to be tracking right over us, leading to a rain to snow storm with a few inches. A shift east 100 miles would be enough to close schools.

Kicking off the Christmas Season




While most likely a light snow, the Canadian, GFS and Euro all show conditions right for snow. Not sure the temps will be low enough to stick, or precip hard enough to stick, but should generate the right feel for kicking off the Christmas season.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

First real snows on GFS




Here's a look at the 28th and 12/2 off the accuweather gfs site. Its only one run, but its the first with real definitive snow. I had guessed the week before Thanksgiving as the first real snow (we already had some in October), but I was off by a couple of days if this holds. It does not look possible to have a white Thanksgiving right now.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Great Nov Ridge continued




There are signs that the ridge holding most of november will be moving on out. Possibly resulting in a block as you can see the higher heights over NE Canada. Watch that ridge pump on the west coast, with trough east of hawii, to get the trough into the middle of the country. Can't tell if it will hold though.

11/21 - top shows the end of the ridge

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The great november ridge


Euro and GFS 10 day means are showing ridging in the middle of the country, actually with higher than normal heights over almost all of the CONUS. Seems a bit overdone, and there is a shallow trough in the east, keeping us from broiling. But should indicate nice weather to the 20th or so. We'll see how this evolves as its been showing this pattern for a few days now. Keep in mind that the opposite of this is likely coming, for december.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Wild weather watch

Keep an eye out on Ida. Should be hitting FL panhandle or AL by Monday. GFS has massive noreaster off VA on Wed/Thur. ECM 0z run concurs, but 12 z no. No other models have the noreaster at this time, but block Ida from coming north and eject her out over SC and to sea. The ECM and GFS runs are interesting as the 0 line at 850 (5000 ft) is below our area and the thickness on the ECM is right over us.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Cold air is rumored by models

While its still 10 days off, the GFS is picking up an enormous trough for the eastern part of the country with the 0 line at 850mb (where it needs to be to snow) going all the way to Orlando on the 14th. The model has it below 0 at 850 for CT from the 8th through the remainder of the run, the 16th. All we need is some precip.

Friday, October 30, 2009

First real storm for our area


0z above with explosive development
12 z below prior to explosive development

While the October snow was certainly impressive and rare, a real life opportunity has come into the models for around the 6th or 7th. Above is the Euro interpretation from today. The GFS also has snow, but the accumulation is not there. What makes this different than Octobers storm(s) is that the thickness lines are clearly indicating snow, not just the 0 line at 850.

Now the 12z is showing the time before this explodes. I also note that the Canadian is not showing anything. The GFS has a light snow event though.







Sunday, October 18, 2009

No snow but cold

1pm - its 38-39 degrees, rainy with one or two flakes mixed in, it seems, when its windy. Winds 10-15mph. Tough to see if the gfs won this one or not, or if the heavy precip just never made it here to bring down the snow. It has been getting slowly colder though but the precip is heading east. Can't tell how long the wraparound will last.

Tough day to be outside.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Rain or snow or both?

GFS has temps at 850 mb under freezing until a little past midnite, precip starting this evening and lasting through late evening sunday. NAM has danbury mostly below freezing at 850mb with the line on us late afternoon sunday, at which point most of the precip will be winding down. Candian model also has similar to the NAM with the r/s line moving as far west and north as Danbury but again late in the day on Sunday. UKMET has the line as far north as just above I84 in CT but with less precip. Euro has only 24 hr time frames, but keeps the line well se of the entire forecast area.

So, Euro and Ukmet have less precip and colder, Nam and Canadian have more precip and are cold and GFS has it warming in the 850 layer. 4 models with mostly frozen precip aloft and one liquid. GFS places low much further west. All have thicknesses above 540, indicating surface temps remain above freezing.

So there is serious chance of snow, but not likely to accumulate except in the hills, and only small amounts and it will melt fast. I hope...

Radar at 10am Saturday shows heavy precip over N NJ heading our way. Dewpoint around 26 and temp of 43

Winter weather is so much more interesting!

Friday, October 16, 2009

More snow today

Went to work this morning in snow, mixed with rain. High today of 44 on a normal of 64. Brrrrr

Thursday, October 15, 2009

What was that???

I remember once taking the bus home from NYC around the end of October and seeing a snow shower come through Paterson. But it was a brief two minute flurry.

Today it snowed in Danbury from 11:30am to about 9pm. No accumulation, just patches of snow on roofs, cars, some grass, patio and outdoor furniture. But enough for a snowball. This qualifies as the earliest snow I've ever seen in my life in the tri state area. It snowed on Sept 30 this year while I was in Tahoe.

High temp was 41 at 10am, but when the precip started it dropped to 36 down to 33 where it stayed for most of the evening. Anne reported snow as far down 684 as exit 3 at noon, which is about where it started for my ride back to Danbury.

Now that the precip is tapered, the temp is back up to 35. I don't expect it to go under freezing, but heck, who thought it would snow all day.

Interesting thing was that the wx station for the NWS at DXR was reporting snow, but they seemed to ignore it in all of their statements. Finally, after having snowed for 6 hours, they put a chance of snow/rain in the forecast.

Joe calls for a warm November, so this may be it until Thanksgiving. Unless Saturday???

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Boring summer... until today!

8/17 update

The late 8/16 and early 8/17 model runs went well east of Bermuda, but the 12z goes over and 18z today goes west. 0z euro went east, now the 12z goes west right between ccod and bermuda. CMC 0z is right where the 12z euro is, but the 12z grazes ccod. 0z ukmet still in bahamas, but 12z run takes it right up 70W. So the models are coming together and its close. They are having issues with a tiny trough coming off NJ/NE. GFDL has it reaching about 69W while the HRWF has it reaching 70W. Hwrf has it maxing at 120-130kts, cat four, GFDL also reaches that but drops off quickly. Hwrf remains cat 3 till end of forecast


Aside from a few more thunderstorms, the regular pattern of rain and sogginess has defined this summer. Even the recent heatwave of August 10-11 did not reach 90. I don't remember if we have gone a summer without hitting 90, but will be checking the records come mid Sept.

Always look south for spicy food and weather, in the summer at least. Ana and Bill have formed with Ana looking to be a minor ts, maybe reaching cat 1 strength as it tracks over the northern carribean. Models are split as to whether it goes north or south of DR and Cuba as it ends up in the gulf.

Bill looks to be more of a threat to Florida and north with the current model forecast having it reach winds of 110 knots, or 125 mph. Hurricane models only go out 120, but the Euro has it heading to newfoundland (and doesn't even recognize Ana) and the Canadian has it going just off of NJ and New England, perhaps phasing with a shortwave, and never making landfall until Nova Scotia. The Canadian does recognize Ana and has it hitting between Mobile and NOLA. JMA has Ana hitting NOLA and Bill beelining to New England on a rare path out of the Southeast, almost reaching the shortwave on the Euro. Above is the GFS interpretation.

10:30 update - GFS runs today start at 0z with Bill hitting S. Fl, moving into Gulf and hitting Pensacola. All other runs take it to the Bahamas before recurving. Euro 12z takes it from the SE just off the tip of Cape Cod. UKMET and Canadian still on the southern track into gulf..

Friday, June 26, 2009

Two months since something interesting

Wow -can't believe its two months since the last post. Like the last post, we had hail again today on my ride home on 684. At one point, it looked like big fluffing snowflakes hitting the car and splatting, then it transitioned to an outright hailstorm with quarter size hail. The wind rain and hail were so hard you could not see the car next to you or in front of you. We were all at a dead stop. The highway proceeded to flood in parts up to the doors.

On another note, its the 26th day of June, and per the airports records, 21 of the 26 days had rain. I think they missed some sprinkles one day too. NYC records show its the fourth coolest and now post thunderstorms, third wettest june on record. There are four more days, and each day has a chance of rain and below normal temps, but the record wettest is 10.27 inches in 2003 and prestorms they were at 8.65. We had about a half inch of rain at DXR and NYC had .67 today, so that puts them into third. Keep in mind there were no huge daily amounts, just consistent amounts between .1 and.6. All this rain without a tropical system.

Also note that the highest temperature, despite the forecast for 90 the last two days, was 83 today, which is also the highest temp of the month so far.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

and more hail!

I didn't think I'd post this much past winter, but geez. Last night around midnight a nasty storm came through, loud, bright, wind, hail. Enough hail to not be able to see across the street and it literally roared as it hit the house. Entire yard turned briefly white. Lightning was dazzling, frequent and very, very bright. I'm guessing it was reflecting off of hail. Lots of cloud to ground hits. I hadn't seen more than one hail storm since moving here in 2001 and we have had two this month. Still looking forward to the 80's and maybe 90? for the weekend.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

And more sleet..

Per the last entry, what a way to run a spring. 4/20 and its sleeting in Northern Fairfield County, during the day. With a daytime high of 40 (it was 48 overnite and 43 later in the evening). Thunder last night and expected today and tomorrow.

Looking forward to the weekend when we break 80 for the first time since Sept 15, 2008.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

What a way to run a spring

Some odd weather... Severe Thunder and Hail storm in the beginning of the month, with temps only in the 40's. Today, driving down 684 in Katonah, sleet/hail(?) with temps starting at 48 going down to 44 after ending. All the time with the sun trying to shine behind the haze. Most odd thing is that the radar shows everything moving west and the sun was out in the east.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

March in and out as a lion?

3/24 - yes! the reverse jinx worked. NAO seems to want to go negative. Now before excitement builds, the forecasted NAO has been way below the actuals all year. Its actually remarkably bad, so any forecast for a neg NAO now is suspicious. But what it does is block the system to the lakes. The GFS and Euro have responded to this, albeit slightly for now. Instead of over Lake Michagan, the 0z euro has over Chicago, but then jumps eastward over CT. The 12z GFS has it completely east of the lakes now. So if we can get fridays storm to intensify a little more, drag down some colder air, we still have a shot on Sunday. Lets see if the eastward trend continues. BTW - CAN had a little storm with snow Mon-Tues - but that model has been completely overdone this year.

3/23 - this one goes to the lakes. One weak system on the 1st or 2nd may try to get into the cold air, but otherwise nothing impressive. GFS continues to try and establish a trough over us in the 7-14 day period, but as we are seeing, the trough only lasts a day or two then out and in with a new one. The Sunday storm looks like its trying to secondary, which would work for snow during winter, but not in spring. This could be the last post of the season.

3/17 Lets keep an eye out for the end of March. The GFS keeps trying to dump a trough in for the 20th to the 1st. But check out this picture from the 6z run this morning. Its for the 29th... 0z has it on the 28th and 12z has it too...

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Has anyone heard the D word mentioned?

3/15 - Well the winter is winding down. Despite the long runs of the gfs operational and ensembles insisting a trough coming in 3/20 for the duration of the model run (15 days) and temps at 5000 feet staying below freezing, there seems to be no storms to take advantage of the cold air. Which brings up an interesting, scary fact. At DXR (danbury airport) the precip for the last 6 months is 18.07 inches. Normal is 24.46 inches. So its 75% of normal with only January having above normal precip. The NY reservoirs in Putnam are very, very low.

Monday, March 9, 2009

March 16th - 18th

3-11 No longer any prediction of the trough in the east for the 16-19th on the EUro or GFS. Canadian has nice storm/trough on the 18th. Euro has wave hitting around CT on the 16th (late 15th) with temps marginal for snow. Gfs has that wave further south. So, there is a chance of snow/rain on Sunday into monday. We need the snow at night this time of year. Average highs in CT are in the mid forties.

This time of year storm track can no longer be counted on to bring snow. Cold air must be in place and the storm must pass east or south of the area. As of now, models have one storm, weak, off coast 3/16, but bringing more rain than snow. Then clear the 17th and then the trough buckles on the 18th with perhaps a rain to snow event. CMC and GFS are only models this far out as of today (3/9) though. Updates if things change.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Calm...

Some possible light wintry precip Thurs nite into Friday 3/6.
Warm up after that looks to hold until the 12th
After that it gets real cold again
Keep eye on St. Patricks day for next storm

Monday, February 23, 2009

March 1st (ish)





3/2 - 5pm its over. Flurries from the upper level low, no deformation snows. We were dry slotted most of the day while 10 miles east was in bands of snow and the H River had bands of snow. Here is picture from backyard. Black line on stick is 12". At the stick its 10 inches, but averaging out for drifts was 8.












9pm - Nam backs down! now showing 1-3 inches nw corner with 5-8 (.5-.75) inches west of ct river, 7-10 inches east (.75-1 inch). Far cry from the 2 inches from 6 hrs ago. I left the earlier run which has more precip to compare

Nam model 12z run 36 hr precip ending 6pm Monday

5pm - Euro, CMC bring storm just south of LI. UKMET goes just east of LI, NAM and GFS still putting out between .5 and 2 inches, with most of CT between .75 and 1.5, again, west to east.

3/1 - Here it comes - Winter storm warning with NWS calling for 10-14 inches. All models on board with snow for W CT. There is a tight gradient over CT with .5 inches and 2 inches from west to east. But East may mix. Any movement in this line is critical, but GFS and NAM are in solid agreement and have not budged over last three runs. If all snow, then 5-7 inches NW corner, 10-14 inches Fairfield county, 12-18 inches New Haven Middlesex and 18+ New London (again if all snow). Usually, noreasters do shift west, but its getting late for that. Also, higher snow ratios (I used 10:1) may play in the Western part of the state to bring up amounts.



2/28 - Winter Storm Watch! Some are calling for a foot or more now in CT from Sun -Mon nite. Models making more sense now with a more packaged storm. Most have snow starting Sun morn, but light with a wave going just east. Then the UKMET, CAN, EURO have the main low bombing out east of the bm bringing heavy snow until mon nite or even into Tuesday. Amazingly NAM 0z and 6z predicts no snow. 0z GFS had a ton of snow at least 6-12 even sunday but with heaviest early monday morn. 6z had much less, with 2-3 inches with more in ne corner of ct, ri and se mass.

2/27 5pm - its still looking a bit strange, but if this bundles together instead of spreading out, watch out. Still afraid of western movement and possible rain for CT. Most models still have two systems blobbed together with some having us miss the first round and hit second, and others missing the second but getting the first. It should snow sometime between Sat nite and Tuesday but is it flurries or feet?

12z GFS run has 2-3 inches of snow as low moves from GA/SC sat nite, to DE Bay Sun morn and another low forming over E. SC on Sunday. Second system out to sea
18z Nam has 1006 low in GA Sat nite, 1004 over GA and 1008 off Ches. Bay Sun morn with snow in CT and a 1004 off NC Sun nite with rest of precip off the coast
0z Euro had low moving from over NC/SC border to east of NC/SC sun morn to off NC sun nite and the remaining precip hanging around, unorganized the rest of the week
12z Euro has Sun morn rain/snow in nj with 1008 low over W GA/SC moving off Cape Hat 12z mon with snow in ct then up to gulf of maine tuesday with snow in area, unorganized thru thurs.
Both runs of ukmet have the lows just missing us with no precip at all from first system and 12z run has some snow on Tues.
0z Canadian has low over atlanta, to over sc (with sn in ct) to over myrtle beach, out into ocean and north into Southeast Mass. Lots of snow with this one
12z Candian a little further east with second system, still lots of snow on and off thru tues.

2/26 8pm - JMA ignoring front runner, sunny day in ct on sunday but brings snow in on Tues with a system offshore.
18z gfs ensembles bring 1008 low off NC, 100mi off Del bay to over benchmark No secondary development, but does leave some precip behind and has 5000ft temps and surface temps below freezing for even the big cities. NEver develops cutoff low.



2/26 5pm
0z Euro 1010 over GA Sun-Tue then off NC wed. East of BM on Thurs
12z Euro 1008 over GA/SC coast Sun, just off on Mon-Tues, Hatteras Wed and East of BM on Thurs - still puts out snow for the area how?
0z CMC 1006 over GA sun, off VA mon, second forms off GA tues, both pivot around Wed into Maine - snow along coast
12z CMC - 1008 over GA Sat, SC sun, off VA mon, over BM at 1004 Mon nite, mostly snow, not a lot and more at the coast
0z UKMEt - 1012 over SC on sun, just off va mon-wed
12z UKMEt - 1012 over West NC Sun, slowly off NC tues, then just east of Benchmark on Wednesday
6z DGEX - some snow on sun. Second forms off NC mon-wed, then brushes ccod
0z GFS - 1008 over SC Sat, 1004 off NJ sun morn, 2nd off of NC Sun nite, Hits Bmark on Monday and Tuesday - 4-8 inches
6z GFS - 1004 over NC Sun morn, off NJ Sun afternoon, reform off NC monday, over BM tues. too close Sunday=rain, but snow Tuesday 3-6, 12z 12z GFS - 1004 over SC sun6z, off del bay sun 12z, 2nd off nc sun nite and out to sea by Wed. odd thicknesses though 850 and surface temps support snow Sun
0z Nam - snow, 12z sun, 1004 off NC at 84hrs (sun)
6z nam - blows warm air all up coast, 6z sunday 1004 over VA/NC then elongates from CT to NC at 18z sun (84hrs)
12z Nam snow all day sunday with low off nj, 850 and surface under 32. with second forming off of GA.
18z Nam 1008 forms over SC sat nite, moves off nj sunday, air aloft over 32, surface under 32



2/25 - 1:30 0z GFS has 992 low jut of S Jersey, all rain east of H River;
6z GFS has 996 just over Benchmark, but not much precip, perhaps 3-6
12z GFS has 1004 just east of Benchmark, mostly snow, not a lot though
12z GFS Ens 1004 over Benchmark, rain/snow
0z UKMET - 1004 off of NC to over Cape Cod Mon night
12z UKMET - 1004 off of Hatteras up to S. New England
0z Euro - 1000 off of Delmarva, mostly snow west of CT river
12z Euro - 1004 over NJ, now mostly rain
0z CAN - 1000 over Chesapeke, north 996 right over CT, rain to snow
12z CAN - 1004 over Delmarva, redevelop off NC, go NE, then NW to a 992 Low over CT. Shows mostly snow, but not sure how
6z DGEX - 1002 off NJ moves NE, mostly snow. reforms off NC coast, moves NE, then NW (like CAN) but further off coast and away from S. NE. but keeps light snow in through Tuesday
JMA has same type of feature, forming off NC, moving north, reforming off NC, moving north.

Question for the day - does this mean two storms?


2/24 5pm. 12z Euro comes in close to coast, but stays cold in western ct with snow. 12z gfs also now has storm, stretched out though, with snow over western ct. Can has gone west into ny state, resulting in snow, rain, snow possibility. UK Met on board, not sure of extent of precip, but looks like it want to go just east of our area. If GFS and Euro are right, could be 6+ inches. GFS thicknesses look strange, but surface temps and temps at 5000 feet are all below freezing. Euro is way below freezing at 5000 feet. 18z GFS run showing the storm going right over CT resulting in rain. 18z DGEX has shifted a little north with storm going from VA northeast, brushing CT with some clouds.

2/24 10am - 0z Euro still with storm, weaker and later and further south. CMC (CAN) still has storm right up coast, a little weaker. DGEX goes south, out to sea. 0z GFS completely loses the storm. 6z GFS brings storm out, then over the benchmark, but with warm air and limited precip on west side, so its a glancing blow. Taking the 6z GFS and EURO, storm will just glance with some snow west of CT river. CMC is all out noreaster. I doubt the out to sea option, with a shift to the lakes more likely, as has been the pattern this year.

2/23 5pm - JMA on board with storm, but looks very suspcious good air aloft. Euro has farther south with it still looking funny - also warms it up aloft with center of 500mb low over SC and freezing line to Orlando all along the coast to ME. GFS has, you guessed it, storm on Sunday to the lakes!

2/23 This is way out there, but EURO and CAN have 996 low just south of LI with mostly snow over the tristate. DGEX and GFS are shoving it south with no snow, but cold. I would say that since there are two models with this storm, its likely going to the lakes!

Brief warmup Thurs/Fri with cold front and rain Fri.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Sunday 2/22 - possible quick hit, or Monday Noreaster?



1z Euro and Can now weaken the clipper to a light snow event. But follow it with what could be our first southern stream event. 120 hr is Sunday morn, 144 is Monday


Some models continue on the possibility that a little clipper quickly develops right where we would see some decent snow fall, say around 6 inches. Would be fast moving.




12z Euro and Canadian have weakened the northern stream system, so just flurries on Sunday, but look at the pix . Could this be our first Southern Stream storm?




Sunday, February 15, 2009

Is thursday 2/18 rain?













Without any real cold air around, this one looks to be mostly rain for CT. The models are not in alignment:
GFS - furthest south with low over Central NE
Euro - Takes up through the lakes
UKMet - takes low through vt,nh
DGEX - N. VT
Canadian - up st lawrence
GFS ens still have low just south, with a 996 just over nj
Temps look to be in the 30's to start, so it does not look like there will even be much icing.

There is still time to shift - lets see around 84-72 hrs. But current models have nothing that would indicate a shift south.


2/17 model update. Above are the pix from E-wall Penn State. Note the 540 thickness lines and 0deg 850 are below the low. Normally they would extend eastward from the top of the circle surrounding the L . This still is strange, but consistent.








Saturday, February 14, 2009

From blizzard to fizzard


The 0z models, except Japanese, have the thursday storm heading north of CT now, resulting in rain. Instead of a bowling ball from CA to CT, its now just another northern branch storm. These have corrected south from time to time, so an eye should be kept on it. GFS continues an active pattern after with storm on SUN and Tues afterwards.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Blizzard???




Winds are howling in CT tonite!
Valentines day looks clear for CT, but lurking is quite a storm for 2/18-2/20. Current (18z) GFS and 12zEURO have at 168 major storm with pressures around 972 just south of Long Island. Current precip output on GFS is over 2 inches. Tight gradients mean wind and the temps look in the low 20's. DGEX still has storm cutting to lakes, which has been typical track until recently.